Chicago was my 'dream school' for years (I want to do theory). I love professors, I love their research. I don't put much weight on prelims - I'll certainly pass them. On the other hand, "Superstar" factor in faculty advice where top 1/3 of students gets 90% of attention is a mixed-blessing as it can equally help or hurt me. Instead, my concerns are more pragmatic: uncertain job-market placement and uncertain financial aid.
I looked at over 200 CVs at top 10 departments and it seems Chicago is under-represented, compared to MIT/Yale/Princeton/Harvard. My advisor said that every year, top students from Chicago get the best jobs but others - not so much. I am not a fan of Harvard but it seems even their weaker students get something (I am not *that* risk-averse, though
. I cannot know how favourably I will compare to a diverse international pool of students at UC.
Since I have to support my wife who is also considering graduate studies, financial aid is a necessary condition for me. A likely scenario is me getting into Yale, which nearly guarantees aid, and Chicago which could give me nothing. In this case, I could end up in New Haven. On the other hand, I'd pick Chicago with aid over anything else
subject to current information set.
I could see UC's jungle, survival of the fittest, in the first year to be advantagenous for students who are confident in their own ability (me). Even then, it only seems to benefit students who don't get into other top5 departments with a smaller applicant pool. I can see students thinking, "Why should I roll the dice and stress needlessly in a large semi-screened applicant pool at UC if I could go to the 'second round' right away at a rigorously-screened smaller pool of admits?"