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user_name, the other half of the calculation is the expected benefit of the master's. A master's isn't a guarantee of admission to a better school, and a PhD from a better school isn't a guarantee of a better job after graduation. In fact, there is some risk -- someone who is the best student at their undergrad program and is only middle of the pack in a master's might not improve his chances very much. And for a one-year master's program, it's hard to for your grades or recommendations to be available in time to apply to start a PhD immediately after the masters. It could mean waiting a second year, so that you have materials from the master's program to submit. (Also, if we are going to be picky, you really need a discount rate as well as an interest rate in your calculation...)
The bottom line is that it is one thing to do a master's because you've decided that it's worth it to you to have an improved chance of admissions to top PhD programs, and it's another to do a master's because you have been given the impression that it's necessary for a PhD.
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