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i'd apply to both, and look closely at programs where MSc = first 1 or 2 of the PhD at schools you wouldn't mind staying at for PhD, where this is a normal route to a PhD. After your MSc you can apply elsewhere, and depending on the program, and if you do well, your school at that time might be a good safety if you don't get in elsewhere. For some schools in econ MSc-> PhD admission is far from guaranteed even for decent students though, so take a close look at schools of interest.
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