Mikey, I tend to disagree, unless he's kept in touch with the Stanford profs and has them writing his
LOR's. If that's the case, top 5's are possible. If he's mostly relying on the UCSB recs, then there's not a chance in hell (and I don't mean that in a bad way, just being realistic). Profile is good, not great. I see top 20/25 as almost a given; a likely top 10 (thanks mostly to Stanford). Top 5... not unless some people at Stanford really like you.
@Antichron... are you really on the 4-year plan, and is what you posted on your site your real schedule. That's insane! Good luck, and it's nice to have some familiarity with a future JBC Medal winner... maybe Daron can give you some advice for your acceptance speech, since he has some experience (hint: thank the wife... I thought that was a nice touch).