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If I were you, I'd apply to some schools ranked below Rice for safety purposes (although I think Rice is comparatively safe already). Now that everyone has Real Analysis, 800Q, and GPA >3.7, it's pretty hard to get in schools like UPenn and Cornell. So the rational thing to do is to expand your list downward. Maybe I'm a little pessimistic, but last year seems to produce more nasty surprises than pleasant ones.
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