[LouisLin]

14. The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.

"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."

The argument is that Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase profits by expanding the variety of vegetable seeds because a national survey indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets and the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. The independent valuables, people’s unsatisfactions about the quality of fresh vegetables in supermarkets and local gardening magazine’s sale volumes are positive causes for dependent valuable, the profits from selling the variety of vegetable seeds. The argument is sound apparently; however, after thinking over deliberately, this argument is not cogent. In the following paragraphs, I will point out several fallacies of this argument as follows.

First of all, consumers who are dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets are possibly not interested in growing their own vegetables and don’t indeed cultivate vegetables by themselves. As we know, consumers have various choices to purchase vegetables and fruits. When consumers dissatisfy the quality of vegetables in supermarkets, they can buy vegetables in traditional markets or fairs, grocery stores, farms and so on. In addition, if we resent some kind of food, we may refuse consume and eat it rather than grow it by ourselves. For example, most pigs affected Aphthae Epizootic in Taiwan three years ago, people in Taiwan made their decision to not buy and eat pork rather than raise piggies on their own. To my personal experience, I can’t eat vegetable immediately while growing it by myself; however, I can eat vegetable right away with replacement. From what is mentioned above, we can know that consumers are dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets can’t deduce the fact that they are interested in growing their own vegetables.

Secondly, in accordance with the argument, we can know that Green Thumb Gardening Center is in a small town; nevertheless, the national survey’ s samples was possible from metropolises. It is possible that consumers in metropolis can buy vegetables only in supermarkets. However, it didn’t mean that people lived in a suburban town only can consume vegetables in supermarkets too. Oppositely, people dwelled in suburban town may have distinct choices to buy vegetables. Therefore, it is possible that people settled in a suburban town where Green Thumb Gardening Center was located are possibly dissatisfied with the quality of vegetables. The argument over-inferred that dwellers in a suburban town were dissatisfied with the quality of vegetables and made a reckless deduction that people live in a suburban town are interested in growing their own vegetables. Green Thumb Gardening Center may make a wrong decision and lose seriously due to the argument’s bold inferences.

Thirdly, the information which argument conveyed to us is that the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Besides, the argument regarded this information as an evidence which show us a phenomenon that more people are interested in growing their own vegetables. However, the argument provided vague information to us because it didn’t tell us which what contents in this gardening magazine. It is possible that this gardening magazine contained growing trees and flowers or make up your plants instead of teaching you how to cultivate vegetables. According to the above descriptions, we can understand that gardening magazine, Great Gardens’ sale volumes are unable to prove the fact that people are interested in growing vegetables by themselves unless this gardening magazine tell us it contain any information about growing vegetables.

To sum up, the evidence that were contained by argument are ambiguous. In addition, the argument over-inferred and over-simplified people’s reactions and behaviors while they are facing the problem. On the basis of these fatal fallacies, the argument is not cogent.