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I agree with 99.9999% of this. That being said, here are some anecdotal tidbits:
(1) When I sat in on a PhD seminar at my graduate school, I was 25. A second year student in the course was my age, and the two first year students were younger than me. In general, however, I tend to agree with your confidence interval.
(2) GMAT *DOES* matter. I was told upfront that I was almost dinged at a top program because of my GMAT quant score (48), and I had a 750 overall (not to mention I'm in Mensa, so there really shouldn't be any question regarding intelligence). I only survived because my recommender suggested they look more closely, and they eventually changed their minds about me. However, if it weren't for my connections, that would have been an early ding. IT DOES MATTER! We are fooling ourselves when we say it doesn't. Seriously. A 700 guarantees nothing with regard to making a "cut." Back when I only had a 710 and was talking to professors and recent PhD grads about possibly doing a PhD, every one of them asked my score and then kind of said, "Eh... you should probably get that up a bit." Sorry, but it's the truth. There are, of course, exceptions and outliers, but do you really want to roll the dice to see if you're one of them?
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Last edited by possible_phd : 2009 May 7th at 03:12 AM.
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