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First... percentile has nothing to do with the score, what you got is a score, scaled score to be exact.
The only relation between percentile and naplex is that they decided that a scaled score of 75 represents the minimum requirement based on the passing rate of a percentile within a group of people.
The other link is that you may have some percentile question on the exam.
About your chances to pass:
I got a 96 on prenaplex and 74 on the real one.
I assume my score dropped because during the 2 weeks in between the 2 tests I didnot touch the books... at all!
Most people get a naplex score slightly higher than the prenaplex but I think there is a problem interpreting the connection between the 2 exams.
In the prenaplex, the 50 questions you get cannot cover as many topics as in the naplex therefore you may be lucky and have 5 out of 6 profiles that you are familiar with in the pre and you may have 5 out of 15 profiles you are familiar with in the naplex... of course the opposite can happen.
The other main difference is that the naplex is adaptive while the prenaplex is not. This means that the questions on the prenaplex will have a coefficient pattern that is not dependent on how you have answered the previous questions. In the Naplex the more you miss, the more you drawn your score by having to answer questions that even if you get right will have a lower weight than a standard question.
I recently found a graph on adaptive tests that shows how in this kind of tests is more important to start well than finish well, basically 1 person got the first 50 questions right and the last 50 questions wrong, another did the opposite and the score was higher for who started well despite the fact that they both answered only 50 questions correctly. Said that I would like to suggest everyone to do your best at the beginning but unfortunately it's not up to the examinee.
If you have already scheduled the test go ahead and take it but make sure to not repeat my mistake and study until the last day, and according to the posts I have seen around, do an extra effort on statistics since it seems they are adding questions on it.
Otherwise I'd study 1-2 more weeks (consider your weak points in the prenaplex) retake the prenaplex (will be a different format, different questions) and go from there.
I understand that by now laying your eyes on the material induces severe nausea, but believe me you do not want to have the same problem 3 months from now.
Wish you the best
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