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It seems like you have no information on the most important variable, the quality of your job market paper.
Everything depends on that. It's kind of like this. Conditional on your JMP passing the standards of your dept/advisor:
If the JMP is fairly crappy and everyone (yourself included) believe that you can't make it any better or produce something better, nobody will really object to you leaving.
If the JMP is OK but shows potential, your advisor will likely put some pressure on you to stay and improve it. They will dangle inducements (oh, this could be great if you did XYZ) and threats (I can't support you leaving when you have such potential!).
If it's great... well... duh... the only thing stopping you from leaving would be if your advisor felt that no good institution was in the market for someone like you this year.
So really, it's all kind of irrelevant. See what you come up with first! Also, notice that you can probably only produce the first outcome (a crappy JMP that barely passes) with certainty. Most people try for the last outcome and get one of the first two...
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