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Longshot and I differ in our levels of risk aversion. Longshot has an usual background (which includes a top military academy) which helped tremendously in entering a PhD program with little-to-no professional or graduate-school experience.
Most of us (including myself) are not this talented or lucky.
Of course you might get lucky and land in a school you like out of undergrad. If so, fantastic. I don't think anyone here is telling you NOT to apply to a school you'd like, on the off-chance you'll be admitted. I'm simply suggesting that if you are a risk-averse, or do not have the background which screams "maturity" like Longshot's, you take the top master's programs and add some meat to your profile.
Trust me, the extra year may be worth it in 6 years when you're on the market. It isn't too early to think of that.
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