081 Although forecasts of presidential elections based on op

[Erin]

81. The following appeared in the editorial section of a daily newspaper.

“Although forecasts of presidential elections based on opinion polls measure current voter preference, many voters keep changing their minds about whom they prefer until the last few days before the balloting. Some do not even make a final decision until they enter the voting booth. Forecasts based on opinion polls are therefore little better at predicting election outcomes than a random guess would be.”

[aabp]

Im writtiing this essay in 35 minutes. If I get rid of one paragraph i can finishi the whole essay in the stipulated time. Which would this paragraph be?
Thanks for your suggestions.

In this article, the writer concludes that the value of opinion polls does not reflect what the result of the elections would be, based on assumption about people’s electoral behaviour. However, a further analysis of the article reflects that the information used to reach the conclusion does not provide sufficient evidence to make the argument convincing and sound.

First, the writer assumes that people do not have a clear decision and keep changing their minds about who is their favourite candidate. Is true that some people hesitate, but it cannot be assumed that this is a common behaviour in order to generalize and conclude that opinion polls are almost useless. Moreover, an argument that weakens this assumption is that people, when deciding who is going to be their next president, are able to make a more conscious decision, because is the election of a president, not a local representative. Therefore, the writer is underestimating the value of these type of polls based on a false assumption.

Second, it is assumed that some voters don’t even know who are they going to choose until they reach the voting both. However, there is no information in the argument that provides evidence to assume that people take the decision in the voting booth. Moreover, even if some people take their decision that early, this situation cannot be used as a reference of what the voters behaviour is. Perhaps, this type of voters, were the ones who answered in opinions polls that they did not know at that time who to vote for. Thus, once again the writer is making use of an assumption that places a gap between the evidence and the conclusion.

Additionally, the fact of considering that the results of these polls are not true is a dangerous assumption which what the writer not only introduces his or her article, but also uses as a fact to support the conclusion. Perhaps, these poll are conducted very seriously by companies specialized in providing accurate results, or even, some of these polls make used of lie detectors, making their results as accurate as possible. We don’t know if that happens, the argument fails to provide that information, but, by the same token, the writer cannot overlook the value of the polls.

Finally, in the article the writer goes even further when comparing opinion polls with a random guess. There is not enough information to support this assumption that clearly underestimates the value of people preferences.

In conclusion, the argument is weak and unconvincing. Since the assumptions aren’t well supported, the conclusion cannot be proved. In order to strengthen the argument, the writer should provide evidence that recent polls provide results totally different than those ones after the elections, and, that there is proven evidence that people change their minds even until the last moment. To better asses the conclusion, it would be useful to know why people change their minds and how this hesitation is reflected in the opinion polls.

[gsrweb]

Hi E'one,

This is my first try... I have started preparing... So please give me the maximum comments( Negative and Positive) you can. I would greately appreciate your feedback.

Thanks.

In the above argument the author comes to the conclusion that opinion polls are no good for predicting the outcome of elections. A detail analysis of the evidence favoring this conclusion reveals that it is not true in reality.

Firstly, the author doest not provide enough evidence to prove his perception about the voter’s behavior is right. He has no favoring statistical figures to support his claim that the voters keep changing their minds about their preferred candidate and some don’t make up their mind till they reach the voting booth. Any such generic assumption about human behavior should have a statistical evidence associated with it.

Secondly, the author has not given any evidence in the past stating that the pole prediction were no were in accordance with the actual result. The statement that predicting election outcomes based on opinion polls of little better than random guess should be accompanied by historical facts.

To add to the above facts the author has not said any thing about the credibility of the organization conducting the opinion poll. The prediction of a election always depends on the credibility and ability of the organization. The organization conducting the poll must have a strategic plan to select the right sample to predict.

Above facts obliges me to conclude that the author has not provided enough facts to support his claim that predicting election based on opinion poll is no better than a random guess. To support his claim the author should provide more statistical evidence to prove the behavioral patterns of human and facts from history showing the mismatch between prediction of election result and actual election result.