argument 45, Please comment

[downloader]

45.The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.







"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."





At the beginning of the argument, author expounds a fact about arctic deer that they need go through sea ice between islands to search for food. Then reports from local hunters are mentioned that the deer populations are declining. Because the declining in arctic deer populations coincides with recent global warming trends that caused the sea ice to melt, the conclusion that the decline is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea seems logical.



However, the author is failing to point out other causes that could conduct the declining in arctic deer populations. The alternative causes might be that many young deer didn't survive through the extreme cold winter last year so that the number of arctic deer decreased a lot or that the introduction of new species of deer by government consumed part of the limited food source of arctic deer. It is possible that local residents make more pollution in the past several years and decreased the number of islands, which is suitable for arctic deer living. Moreover, human beings’ hunt needs to be considered. As mentioned in the argument, local hunters report the decline of artic deer population. More and more local people, who hunt arctic deer as entertainment or making a living, can also be a reasonable cause for the decreased number of arctic deer population. All these factors or causes discussed above need be investigated before any conclusion about the reason of the declining is made.



The reports from local hunters are not sufficient to prove the declining in arctic deer populations because they are only the feelings or intuitive of local hunters' individual experience. Personal experiences are limited to people's background and environment and activating range. It is possible that the hunters are only hunting no more than 100 miles away from where they lives and there are many islands where arctic deer can live over 100 miles from human residues. Or since there are more and more hunters in this area, arctic deer become more and more careful and astute under the long-time hunting pressures so that hunters need more efforts to obtain the same result as several years ago. This feeling of arduousness will let hunters think that arctic deer populations are declining. In order to make sure that the local hunter's reports are correct, thoroughly and well-arranged census must be applied in the whole area where arctic deer have a probability to appear.



In conclusion, the reports from local hunters need be ascertained to make sure this assumption are correct and other factors except for the path cutting resulted from sea ice melting need be considered and excluded. Then the conclusion that the decline is due to the recent global warming trends can be made unquestionably.

[ertda]

I think you should add your introduction, "logical but ..."

[downloader]

thanks