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The following appeared in a newsletter on nutrition and health.
"Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well."
Citing the results of study in percentage figures the author of the newsletter here concludes that Zorba would help in preventing recurrence of ulcers. Also, the author claims that it might help prevent first time ulcers without any support from the data supporting it. In my opinion the argument seems to be based on some weak evidence and therefore unconvincing as it stands.
Firstly, the author claims that the 25% of the ulcer patients who took Zorba developed new ulcers. However, the author does not cite any absolute numbers to support the data. Perhaps there were only 4 patients in the study in which 1 of them developed ulcer again. Had one more person developed ulcer in this case, the percentage would have jumped to 50%. It is not substantial amount of data to support a claim. The author compares this data to data from ulcer patients who did not take Zorba and claims a 75 percent recurrence rate among them. However, again the author does not quote any absolute numbers. Also the author does not cite if the 2 group of patients were treated in a similar set of conditions. Perhaps the patients who took Zorba were also taking some other medications or the patients who did not take Zorba were taking some food product that caused Ulcer again. Hence, the argument could be strengthened if the author could support it with data on the conditions in which the study was conducted and also the absolute number of patients in each group.
Secondly, the author claims that if the health experts claim the effect of Zorba to the general public it might help in preventing first time occurrence of ulcers. However, the author does have any data to support it. The author is extrapolating the result of the current study. The author does not even know if the people who developed ulcers for the first time were taking Zorba or not. Since, it is a diet supplement, may be many people are already taking it and still they develop ulcers. Hence, the author’s claim seems to be a work of conjecture.
In conclusion the argument is based on very little evidence which has been extrapolated. The author needs to strengthen the argument by providing data such as the number of people who went through the study and the conditions in which the people were treated. Also, the author cannot simply extrapolate a piece of data.
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Originally Posted by ruchia
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