Renege PhD offers and re-apply in this December?

[chadhunter]

Admitted to a top 20-30 finance phd program but feel underplaced. Now I am coauthoring a paper with a senior professor and considering turning down my accepted offer and re-applying this December. I know it's not right but I think I should do what is good for me in the long run.

 

I haven't talked with my referees so I am not sure whether they are willing to write a letter for me if I renege my offer. If you were me, what would you do? Any suggestions and thoughts will be appreciated.

 

BTW I hope to enter top 15 program. Has anybody turned down their accepted offer and re-applied? Need your advice.

Edited April 24, 2018 by chadhunter

[zshfryoh1]

This is a really bad idea. You got into a top 20-30 program, and there is no guarantee that you will place any higher next cycle even with a publication on your record. Finance admissions are highly random for anyone, especially at top 15 programs even for someone with a "perfect" profile. Most finance PhD's only matriculate 2-4 students a year (perhaps 5-8 for a few schools at the top) and there are numerous factors that get taken into account. And as far as long term, the difference in placements for the top students at top 30 programs are not significantly different from the middle of the pack at top 15's (though not top 5's).

 

Also, the world of academic finance is relatively small, especially at the top and turning down an accepted offer at this point in April looks really bad unless it is because you got a late acceptance off waitlist for a significantly higher ranked program and the program you accepted the offer at gives their OK.

 

Additionally, you don't mention what journal this co-authored paper is in. Unless it is in a high ranked journal, it will not help you get into a top 15. If anything a publication in a middle tier journal might hurt your prospects at top 15 programs.

 

If you had only gotten into a top 75 program and your advisors thought that you really could get into a top 15 next cycle there might be some room to discuss your situation for the long term benefit of your career, but not when you got into a top 30.

[chadhunter]

This is a really bad idea. You got into a top 20-30 program, and there is no guarantee that you will place any higher next cycle even with a publication on your record. Finance admissions are highly random for anyone, especially at top 15 programs even for someone with a "perfect" profile. Most finance PhD's only matriculate 2-4 students a year (perhaps 5-8 for a few schools at the top) and there are numerous factors that get taken into account. And as far as long term, the difference in placements for the top students at top 30 programs are not significantly different from the middle of the pack at top 15's (though not top 5's).

 

Also, the world of academic finance is relatively small, especially at the top and turning down an accepted offer at this point in April looks really bad unless it is because you got a late acceptance off waitlist for a significantly higher ranked program and the program you accepted the offer at gives their OK.

 

Additionally, you don't mention what journal this co-authored paper is in. Unless it is in a high ranked journal, it will not help you get into a top 15. If anything a publication in a middle tier journal might hurt your prospects at top 15 programs.

 

If you had only gotten into a top 75 program and your advisors thought that you really could get into a top 15 next cycle there might be some room to discuss your situation for the long term benefit of your career, but not when you got into a top 30.

 

 

Thank you zshfryoh1. Actually I already have one working paper with a senior finance professor who has published over 20 papers at top 3 finance journals. The other senior professor I am now working with also has around 10 top 3 publications. So the probability that my current two projects will hit the top journals are quite high. I also recently have an opportunity to do a top RA-ship for a well-known professor.

 

Sorry that I can't give more details, otherwise it will reveal myself. In short, I just feel bad that these opportunities hadn't come earlier before my application. And I agree that reneging my offer will burn certain bridges but I really hope I could have done better. So I am asking for advice on the trade-offs. I just want to hear different perspectives to make informed decision.

[YaSvoboden]

^ nailed it. Top 30 won't hold you back.

[chadhunter]

^ nailed it. Top 30 won't hold you back.

 

Thanks YaSvoboden. Do you mean you made it? If so, do you mind sharing (or PM me) how the department that gave you offer and your referees reacted to your decision? That would help me a lot. Thank!

[chadhunter]

This is a really bad idea. You got into a top 20-30 program, and there is no guarantee that you will place any higher next cycle even with a publication on your record. Finance admissions are highly random for anyone, especially at top 15 programs even for someone with a "perfect" profile. Most finance PhD's only matriculate 2-4 students a year (perhaps 5-8 for a few schools at the top) and there are numerous factors that get taken into account. And as far as long term, the difference in placements for the top students at top 30 programs are not significantly different from the middle of the pack at top 15's (though not top 5's).

 

Also, the world of academic finance is relatively small, especially at the top and turning down an accepted offer at this point in April looks really bad unless it is because you got a late acceptance off waitlist for a significantly higher ranked program and the program you accepted the offer at gives their OK.

 

Additionally, you don't mention what journal this co-authored paper is in. Unless it is in a high ranked journal, it will not help you get into a top 15. If anything a publication in a middle tier journal might hurt your prospects at top 15 programs.

 

If you had only gotten into a top 75 program and your advisors thought that you really could get into a top 15 next cycle there might be some room to discuss your situation for the long term benefit of your career, but not when you got into a top 30.

 

 

Thanks zshfryoh1. I have replied you but somehow it's not shown probably because my reply is under review for being too long. Being short, I already have one working paper with a prof with over 20 top 3 publications in finance and the current coathor has nearly 10 top 3 publications. So I think I will have a better chance at the top departments

[StrategicMGMT]

Academia is a lot smaller than you think. If you are in a top 30 program and have a solid publication record you will place well. If you are in a top 15 program, have a solid publication record and a reputation as a jerk -> probably won't place as well :)

[chadhunter]

Academia is a lot smaller than you think. If you are in a top 30 program and have a solid publication record you will place well. If you are in a top 15 program, have a solid publication record and a reputation as a jerk -> probably won't place as well :)

 

Thanks StrategicMGMT. I agree that reneging offers will burn certain bridges and probably cause reputational damage. But will professors forget after 5 or 6 years? They are busy people and do not have time to keep a blacklist of whom to hate.

[BrazilianPhD]

I had written a long reply, but doing what you are suggesting seems so bad to me in so many ways that it felt like a waste of time. You asked "If you were me", but I believe I would never even think about doing such a thing as the one you are considering.

[chadhunter]

I had written a long reply, but doing what you are suggesting seems so bad to me in so many ways that it felt like a waste of time. You asked "If you were me", but I believe I would never even think about doing such a thing as the one you are considering.

 

Thank you. But why do you think it's bad in so many ways and a waste of time? I just feel depressed that my current opportunities hadn't come earlier before my application and want to give another try.

[BrazilianPhD]

Thank you. But why do you think it's bad in so many ways and a waste of time? I just feel depressed that my current opportunities hadn't come earlier before my application and want to give another try.

 

Well, if you feel depressed with that kind of thing, I really feel sorry for you because you will probably face a lot of situations like that during the PhD and your life as a researcher. Doing a PhD is usually depressing enough, and you are already depressed before starting it. If you start going backward when a new opportunity comes up, I wonder what will happen when you get threats instead of opportunities.

 

As I said, it seems a waste of time and I was really wondering if you are a troll. You made a big mistake applying to a school you are not happy with, then you did an even bigger mistake accepting the offer from a school you are not happy with (and if you just realized that now, that's another mistake too). That means you wasted your time, the school's time, the recommenders' time, and even took the place of someone else who would probably be much happier with the offer. Now you are thinking about an idea that you know that is wrong, and come here looking for validation of that idea. You want to take huge risks, waste another year, invest more money, for a marginally better outcome that seems very unlikely (if your profile is so stellar, one more paper will not make such a big difference unless it is a top journal, but given the limited time it´s not realistic to hope to get it published by a top journal before the end of the year). You have already been informed that this new paper can actually hurt you for a top 15 school instead of helping, and you seem aware that you may have problems with referees (even if they accept going through that trouble again for you, you can't be sure their letters of recommendation will be as good again). So, if you apply again your new profile will be just slightly better (best scenario) or actually worse (higher probability of this happening compared to the best scenario).

 

Unless there is something else going on here that I'm not aware, you are taking huge risks to get an expected lower return. You don't need to have a PhD in Finance to know this might be a very bad idea. But maybe you are just too different from me, and is the kind of person who thinks in terms of "all or nothing", is a risk lover or is just addicted to mistakes.

 

You want to do something that is not right, go ahead. People are free to do that. But don't expect us to say it is right.

Edited April 23, 2018 by BrazilianPhD

[YaSvoboden]

Thanks YaSvoboden. Do you mean you made it? If so, do you mind sharing (or PM me) how the department that gave you offer and your referees reacted to your decision? That would help me a lot. Thank!

I think my original post was vague. I was really just saying that zshfryoh1 put all of my thoughts down perfectly.

 

For a little more context, I am graduating from an accounting PhD this year. Our finance department is probably in that 20-30 range, maybe a little higher. Rankings are tricky. They had 5 great placements this year, including one into a top 5 school. Our accounting program is similar ranking, maybe a little higher, and we have placed into a top 5 school every few years and regularly place into good R1 schools. Realistically, there is not much distinction between programs ranked about 5-30. They can all place into any school and provide excellent training. I think the top few programs provide additional connections that add value, but the odds of you jumping to one of those next year seems really small.

 

To sum it all up - your proposed jump from a top 30 school to a top 15 school isn't that big of a jump anyway. The odds of making that jump aren't really clear. It is pretty easy to identify a large cost associated with turning down the offer right now. I think it's pretty clear that the best move for you is to accept the current offer and do your best there.

[another user]

I'm pretty sure the publication will help even if it's in a lower ranked journal, but it's very unlikely to get it published in time. Also, it may not help that much, and going from a top 30 school to a top 15 is not worth the risks and the additional year. I wouldn't do it.

[chadhunter]

I think my original post was vague. I was really just saying that zshfryoh1 put all of my thoughts down perfectly.

 

For a little more context, I am graduating from an accounting PhD this year. Our finance department is probably in that 20-30 range, maybe a little higher. Rankings are tricky. They had 5 great placements this year, including one into a top 5 school. Our accounting program is similar ranking, maybe a little higher, and we have placed into a top 5 school every few years and regularly place into good R1 schools. Realistically, there is not much distinction between programs ranked about 5-30. They can all place into any school and provide excellent training. I think the top few programs provide additional connections that add value, but the odds of you jumping to one of those next year seems really small.

 

To sum it all up - your proposed jump from a top 30 school to a top 15 school isn't that big of a jump anyway. The odds of making that jump aren't really clear. It is pretty easy to identify a large cost associated with turning down the offer right now. I think it's pretty clear that the best move for you is to accept the current offer and do your best there.

 

Thanks very much for the information, YaSvoboden. But in the long term, I think the brand name of a top 15 school (e.g. Yale, Columbia) will be an asset to me though it may be less relevant to the short-term academic placement. Also it gives a better chance in the industry, which can be a backup.

[chadhunter]

I think my original post was vague. I was really just saying that zshfryoh1 put all of my thoughts down perfectly.

 

For a little more context, I am graduating from an accounting PhD this year. Our finance department is probably in that 20-30 range, maybe a little higher. Rankings are tricky. They had 5 great placements this year, including one into a top 5 school. Our accounting program is similar ranking, maybe a little higher, and we have placed into a top 5 school every few years and regularly place into good R1 schools. Realistically, there is not much distinction between programs ranked about 5-30. They can all place into any school and provide excellent training. I think the top few programs provide additional connections that add value, but the odds of you jumping to one of those next year seems really small.

 

To sum it all up - your proposed jump from a top 30 school to a top 15 school isn't that big of a jump anyway. The odds of making that jump aren't really clear. It is pretty easy to identify a large cost associated with turning down the offer right now. I think it's pretty clear that the best move for you is to accept the current offer and do your best there.

 

Thanks YaSvoboden. I had replied to you but somehow my replies need to be approved by a moderator to be seen.

[chadhunter]

I'm pretty sure the publication will help even if it's in a lower ranked journal, but it's very unlikely to get it published in time. Also, it may not help that much, and going from a top 30 school to a top 15 is not worth the risks and the additional year. I wouldn't do it.

 

Thanks another user. I believe the letter from the senior professor is more helpful than the working paper. From my first-hand and second-hand information, it seems that reference letters are the most important factor in finance phd application. That's why I am considering reapplication because I can potentially have 3 letters from distinguished professors.

[another user]

Thanks another user. I believe the letter from the senior professor is more helpful than the working paper. From my first-hand and second-hand information, it seems that reference letters are the most important factor in finance phd application. That's why I am considering reapplication because I can potentially have 3 letters from distinguished professors.

I agree, the letter of recommendation would be more important than the working paper. Maybe you should ask his opinion about this and whether he would write you a letter and what he thinks about your chances in a top 15 school, conditional on you doing a great job as his coauthor.

[StrategicMGMT]

Thanks StrategicMGMT. I agree that reneging offers will burn certain bridges and probably cause reputational damage. But will professors forget after 5 or 6 years? They are busy people and do not have time to keep a blacklist of whom to hate.

 

Yes, maybe some will forget but at 2 admits per school x 30 schools (top 30), 60 people. How many people renege an offer in a given year? Assuming under 10% (that is probably pretty generous), that is not really a lot of names to remember nor does it necessitate some kind of blacklist or tracking.

 

Prior to my time in academia I had a pretty successful firm and we hired about 50 people in a year. We extended offers to around 150 people in that same time period. Some accepted and reneged later; and while I can't remember their names off the top of my head, if I ever saw the name pop up again I would definitely remember. This happened with maybe ~5 people in that time.

 

Again, don't under estimate how small academia is. Ethics are a huge part of this profession and negative signals will stick to you. If you want a preview go on EJMR and look at how people get shredded on there for perceived slights that are a fraction of what you are suggesting. Based on your responses it seems you have made up your mind and are just wanting to justify your decision. You are basically eliminating your chances at co-authors with anyone that was involved in your admissions at the school, AP opportunities at schools if they move around, & of course letter writers when you are up for tenure.

 

If that is worth a 10 place jump on arbitrary rankings then go for it. But I agree with the others saying within the top 30 it really doesn't matter. At that point, no one questions your training. When you are on the market it is about research potential (publications) as the gate keeper, and then personal fit with the department when you interview. Going back to what I said before, do you think damaging your reputation will help with the personal fit aspect? If you already have a paper in process, you are going to have the publication part covered - you should be worried about fit and networking.

 

Best of luck.

[chadhunter]

I agree, the letter of recommendation would be more important than the working paper. Maybe you should ask his opinion about this and whether he would write you a letter and what he thinks about your chances in a top 15 school, conditional on you doing a great job as his coauthor.

 

Thanks. I actually talked with one of my referees. He said that finance academia is a small profession and reneging an accepted offer is a serious signal. Though some current PhD students said it's overstated as long as I don't apply for the same school. Not sure which one is true.

[YaSvoboden]

Trust the person that is more experienced. We have interviewed students at our school that left an impression that still matters. We had someone get an offer from our school as their only offer and decide not to do a PhD that year. I don't think this would seriously hurt your chances of getting into a PhD program next year, but it could affect your odds of getting a job at that school or other schools where those professors or their PhD students end up. If you are only doing this because you think you could get into a slightly better school, I do not think it is a good idea.

[zshfryoh1]

Trust the person that is more experienced. We have interviewed students at our school that left an impression that still matters. We had someone get an offer from our school as their only offer and decide not to do a PhD that year. I don't think this would seriously hurt your chances of getting into a PhD program next year, but it could affect your odds of getting a job at that school or other schools where those professors or their PhD students end up. If you are only doing this because you think you could get into a slightly better school, I do not think it is a good idea.

 

Also, in the OP's case they already accepted the offer. It is one thing to turn down an offer without accepting it before April 15 even if the reason is not good, and I doubt that would hurt except perhaps for applications at that particular school the next cycle. But reneging on an accepted offer, especially after April 15 sends a bad signal as the OP's professor said. As YaS mentioned, trust an experienced professor over current grad students.

[ocelot22]

You absolutely cannot discount what everyone is saying in this thread. You should want to go to a school because you want to work with the professors, not so you can consider yourself a member of some elite hierarchy because say, you get into NYU. You absolutely can do a great PhD at a lower ranked school and a Bad PhD at a top school. I have not applied to programs yet, however I will share an anecdote. The school that I received my MBA at had a assistant finance professor who got his PhD at University of Chicago. In fact, Eugene Fama was on his dissertation committee. This professor never was able to achieve any A pubs in the five years he worked at my school, and is now working at a think tank, which granted isn't the end of the world I suppose. This same school has a tenured professor who did his PhD at Louisiana Tech and he has 4-5 A pubs.The moral of the story. You can get your PhD at University of Southern Illinois and if you get a revise and resubmit in the Journal of Financial Economics, you will probably still get an excellent academic placement. Yes there is some mild correlation between the prestige of the school, and number of PhD coauthored publications, but rankings are certainly not deterministic.

[BrazilianPhD]

Saying it is "overstated" doesn't mean it's good, right? Just that it's not as bad as some people say. So, to me it seems the referee believes it's seriously bad, and the PhD students think it's just plain bad. It's bad anyway, as everyone here is saying too.

[anyway]

Hello! How do you think of going to the school and later on transfer? Is it better than renege, or it is even worse? I am facing a similar situation.

[chadhunter]

Hello! How do you think of going to the school and later on transfer? Is it better than renege, or it is even worse? I am facing a similar situation.

 

One of my recommenders told me that I can also transfer in the future but will need justifiable excuse such as family reasons. I know a couple of econ phds who transfered to finance but hardly know any finance phds that successfully transfered to a better finance program.