Phd in Finance, apply now or wait for a stroger application next year?

[lcappa]

Hy everyone, Im from Brazil and this is my case:

I) proflie:
Not impressive, the interest for a Phd/research is something as recent as the begining of this year - however, I am sure about this, discussed a lot with professors...
-BS in Economics in the country's best university, average 6,6/10 *
-Master's in Economics and Finance 7,5/10 at the top business school in the country, thesis to be concluded by april/08 **
-GRE - 800Q 540V 5.0W (4 weeks after unprepared attempt - 700 490 4.0) - TOEFL - 109/120
IMPORTANT ***: letter of recommendation - various references, all strongly supporting that I can achieve a PhD with strong math requirements, despite my unexceptional grades (they also share the view that our grading system is not really compareable with that of most developed countries, and thus, less important in the reviewing process).
-2,5 years experience as trainee on Brazil´s largest Investment Bank, at trading desk (fixed income, Treasury, and structured products, Sales), credit analysis, economic research. Plus, 3 months as fixed income fund manager - brief but mentionable, since I actually quit when I realized I wanted to focus on studying..


II) doubts:
- Apply now, at least I have the LoRs and the gre claiming proof of fairly good math habilities. Also, I will state in my SoP that I shall take courses in calculus, analysis and possibly, optimization in 1st half 2008. One of my referees supports this alternative.

- Apply in 2008, seems more logical, I will have:
already finished (and translated) the master's thesis, published a couple of articles, taken 3 further semesters of courses on math, given assistance in a few undergrad courses and maybe some MBA lectures, taken the GMAT with 10 months to prepare. All improving my chances and contributing to a better Phd performance. I really dont mind the waiting (I'll be 26 next feb), but....

...If I wait, chances are that I will need to work in industry/banking to support myself, and thus have no way to accomplish all the points above (but for finishing the thesis of course).


Im concerned with the bad points of applying this year with a poorer profile and, in case Im not accepted in any school, reapplying in 08. The fear that reapplications are not weel seen GENERALLY, would lead me to apply only to "easier to get" schools this year, but Im still not 100% confident that in case Im accepted at such, I would go. My profs with top US Phds asssured I have chances to get into a top 30 school or even better, specially next year. Does reapplying next year would be badly seen by the evaluators, even in case I get all the profile improvements I intend? Obviously, If I get to a consensus that I should wait, even if I cant make all the improvements, next year I would do my best and apply anyway, but Im trying to avoid the taste that I went to a not so good school earlier when I could stand a chance to get into a top 15 in 09.
To give examples, Im aiming high at Columbia, Duke, Kellogg, Cornell, Yale, and lower in Europe, top 30-50 US. and in this year at least, I cant afford to apply to more than 8 schools...


Thanks a lot, I obviously dont expect any answers to be a fraction of elaboration of this thread.. just looking for some opinions from non professors/non brazilian...




further background info (optional reading I guess, I apologize for my lack of conciseness)
*
1 year of calculus (includes multivariate, with median grades) plus linear algebra;
2,5 years of statistics/econometrics/introd. probability (fairly good grades);
1,5 years of really introductory finance, plus micro and macroeconomic theory (good grades);
p.s. there is not exactly undergraduate diplomas, nor GPA in Brazil, I can further explain grades and higher education system if necessary - but I can say the top 10 students out of 190 had 8,0-9,0 averages.

**in this case I could calculate a GPA of 3,1 including Cs in finance/derivatives, both last year, before developing particular interest in finance. That should be my main drawback, but the professor basically just grades Cs and a few Bs. As on financial econometrics, macroeconometrics, fixed income. Bs on most introductory courses. (I say "could" because there is no official conversion rules for Brazil, and grades never compare me with other students, they mean absolute values).

*** certainly, the master's program coordinator (Northwestern Phd) and former coordinator (LSE, maybe the most famous econometrician in the country), both fairly excited with the idea of sending the program's first student to a finance doctoral program, plus achieved A with both. Undergrad macroeconomic prof (Yale), a respected economist, who assured an excelent letter of recommendation either this year or next. Calculus I prof, also assured a good math background reference letter. Possibly a 5th and a 6th, master's profs (Yale and Chicago), in case I decide to apply there, next year I guess.

[desimba]

You will stand a much better chance of getting admitted if you apply next year with your targeted profile improvements. This year you are already sailing fairly close to the deadline at a number of these schools and you may not have the time to prepare the best application package that you are capable of. e.g. Stanford's deadline is 1st December, Harvard's is 3rd & Wharton's is 15th December. Given that and also the fact that admissions to finance programs are particularly competitive, you might apply to <= 3 programs if you apply this year, maybe to schools such as CMU, Texas Austin, etc. which are fairly good just to test the waters and then apply in full swing next year. My 2 cents,
SB

[lcappa]

I agree that there are time constraints... but that&#180;s not the deterrant so far... deadlinewise, of the 8 schools I think I&#180;d choose to applythis year, just 2 have dec. deadlines, all others are are on early jan... as I have everything about ready, that gives about a couple of weeks to decide and send all materials.
What I read so far here,is that apartfrom being a lot competitive, the decisions are sometimesa bit random, but my major concern is about how bad does it weigh to REapply for the same schools next year in case I end up trying this year already... and probably dont get accepted... The only difference from a regular reapplication is that I have an schedule for studies next year,which as you have noticed, would fairly enhance my chances...

Thanks a lot for the comments!

[windyhwr]

Next year will be better for you, since you will have better related courses grades. But I also strongly suggest you to contact potential professors to get more information about your case.

[lcappa]

Next year will be better for you, since you will have better related courses grades. But I also strongly suggest you to contact potential professors to get more information about your case.

To be honest I didnt get exactly what you mean... Are you suggesting I should get in touch to professors/staff from schools I'd like to apply, to check if there is stronger negative bias towards reapplicants at their particular schools?? I actually believe you said I should talk to my profs/ references here in Brazil... if that's the case, I've done so, they understand my financial difficulties (to support myself here till fall/09 and still be able to focus on studies and research) so opinions are a bit divided - thats what made me ask for further opinions in this thread.
Other Finance PhD candidates I got in touch with obvioulsy stressed that in case I go still in 2008, I should try even harder to get more aquainted with analysis and optimization before leaving Brazil... Also, some people have been suggesting I could have better chances (because of my references background) in applying for a Economics program... While I have not discarded this possibility, I still think for the time being, I will end up waiting and see what happens next year...

Thanks a lot for your attention.