Are there too many PhDs?

[janerixo]

Hi,
I'm currently a Ph.D. student myself. Seeing some some discussions going on about being/becoming a PhD student, recently there was quite a good discussion about whether there might be too many PhDs, on our blog at Are there too many PhDs? | Mendeley Blog.
There were some interesting answers from experienced academics, so I guess this is of interest to you. We would like to keep the discussion going, so if you have an opinion about this, then let me know.
Thanks
Jan

[applicant12]

This is interesting. Really

For me the reason I wanna pursue a PhD is that I wanna be an economic advisor to politicians so I wanna have a good understanding of macroeconomics. I really don't care whether we have a lot of PhDs. 1 thing is that I read Greg Mankiw's blog and he wrote (quote):

"If one has the requisite degree of enthusiasm and commitment, however, one needn't be a superstar to pursue a PhD. A person can be perfectly happy with a PhD from a lower ranked school, followed by a career as a college teacher. There are thousands of economics professors around the country (as well as PhD economists in government and the private sector), and most lead very satisfying lives without ever being candidates for the Nobel prize. The one thing they share is a passion for the study of economics."

The last sentence deserves to be read carefully. I think no matter what you wanna study, it's good to keep in mind is that you should have a passion for it. I don't know how tough it is to get a PhD yet, but seriously, considering all what I've read online (things written by current PhD students), you can't do it if you don't really like it. It’s gonna be tough from the very 1st day. Moreover, you give up a lot since you're gonna spend 5 years. consider the opportunity cost of doing that

[elcapitano]

I'm under the impression that Economics PhD's have an easier time of it than most other disciplines. I don't see too many PhD's going into post-docs and there tend to be pretty good outside options in industry, government or non-profits. I guess as Economics researchers have less of a need for an army of labrats then universities have less of an incentive to overproduce PhD's. I think on another thread someone mentioned that on the AEA website alone there were about 2500 jobs advertised this year for around 1000 new US PhD's and I guess a similar number abroad.

[Adamah]

Is there any data showing where economics phd graduates from various universities go? I'm curious how many from each university end up as post-docs/professors/private industry researchers.

[NB888]

Originally Posted by applicant12

For me the reason I wanna pursue a PhD is that I wanna be an economic advisor to politicians so I wanna have a good understanding of macroeconomics. I really don't care whether we have a lot of PhDs.

I consider that an interesting motive, certainly not what mine would be.

If you were an academic economist whose advice to a politician wasn't followed, would that be disappointing? Would you rather be someone from the political-consulting or campaign-strategy industry whose advice to the politician is followed, or someone from the academic-economics world whose advice isn't followed? If you were in a situation where you aren't allowed to say in public what you think about the topics that interest you, or about what politicians are doing, would that be disappointing? If your reputation is being used to credibility stamp the actions of a politician who isn't doing what you would have done, would that be disappointing? If you're not allowed to say in public that this is happening, W.T.B.D.? What if the politicians don't want your advice? What if they only want your advice on the topics you least care about, or only if you have a tendency to give them the "answers" they went in wanting? Is it a case where you have some idea right now as to what direction you want the advice to go (i.e. libertarian, conservative, social democrat, left-wing etc.)? Or is it a case where you'd want to give numerical, technical answers, such as the effect of tax rates or of regulations.

Personally, if my main motives were to influence or assist the behavior of politicians, I would turn pro after finishing the B.A. I'm doubtful that any degrees beyond that would be worth it for me. I might even consider trying to become a politician myself, so then I'd decide whether or not the politician (me) does what I want. There are some politicians who seem like they're personally committed to some political-economic philosophy, and they stick to it. They only take advisers who agree with their pre-selected philosphy. Ron Paul is an obvious example.

[applicant12]

NB888
That was very interesting. But I would say that I would be as happy to work as a researcher at the WB, the IMF, the UN, or any other NGO. I also have a plan to be a prof in the future too. So that's why I'm interested in Econ PhD

What I really wanna stress here is that I totally agree (that is 100%) with Mankiw. I said the last sentence deserved to be read carefully "The one thing they share is a passion for the study of economics". I think I've read somewhere that grad school would be one of the most difficult experience of your life. And I think if you don't have the love for it, you won't be able to get through it. So I don't think we have too many PhDs.

[NB888]

Originally Posted by applicant12

What I really wanna stress here is that I totally agree (that is 100%) with Mankiw. I said the last sentence deserved to be read carefully "The one thing they share is a passion for the study of economics". I think I've read somewhere that grad school would be one of the most difficult experience of your life. And I think if you don't have the love for it, you won't be able to get through it.

I also think I'm pretty much on the same page as you and Mankiw. The main things people do in academic economics include studying published work. Then, doing work that is supposed to be high enough in quality, and meeting other specifications, and getting it published. It takes a lot of work to do all that. John Mearsheimer has said that it takes years of work to do a first rate piece of scholarship.

If one likes the process of doing all that work more than he would like the other job options, then it is rational to do it.

[AREStudentHopeful]

Originally Posted by elcapitano

I think on another thread someone mentioned that on the AEA website alone there were about 2500 jobs advertised this year for around 1000 new US PhD's and I guess a similar number abroad.

However, I do think it was mentioned on that thread that although there are about 1000 new US PhD's, there are also unemployed PhD's and PhD's from other countries. Thus, that's not necessarily a good measure to judge by. I do tend to agree just from the sample that I've seen (warning: sample error), that economists do have it better than a lot of other PhDs job-wise.

[shootermcgavin7]

The article was written about PhDs in the hard sciences, where there is a massive surplus.

The labor market for PhDs is wildly different from field to field.

[NB888]

Originally Posted by AREStudentHopeful

I do tend to agree just from the sample that I've seen (warning: sample error), that economists do have it better than a lot of other PhDs job-wise.

I've heard people say this, but I have no way of verifying if it's true. I've heard that humanities and philosophy are the worst.

The examples I see are filtered, so that I'm more likely to see people who succeed, both in grad school and the job market, than those that don't.

In a thread a few days ago, I said something like "oh yeah mainstream economists are definitely very hungry for blah blah blah". But I've since decided that I shouldn't jump to that conclusion. The cases where I read or am told about new and different work tend to be pre-sorted. They're things that made it past the journal editors and the professors. I'm not in a position to see the stuff that is rejected, or to adequately judge whether or not it deserved the rejection.