SURVEY: Competition of 2010 Economics PhD admissions?

[SlowLearner38]

Comparing the upcoming 2010 PhD Economics admissions cycle to that of previous years, do you think admissions this year will be:

5) Most competitive
4) Slightly more competitive than previous years
3) About as competitive as previous years
2) Slightly less competitive than previous years
1) Least competitive

To make this interesting, try to provide as sound of reasoning as you can for your choice by describing at least 2 main arguments.

[kimbanator]

FWIW, the Investment Banking firms that came to recruit on our campus said that the mood in New York is very upbeat and the banks expect to hire a lot of recent college grads. I know i-banking is a very imperfect substitute for economics PhD programs, but it's good for us all the same.

[walt526]

FWIW, I expect that it will be an average year in terms of competitiveness, which means that it might be slightly less competitive than last year. In many job markets, it's expected to be a much stronger hiring season this spring than last year or even the year before.

[Golden Rule]

I think you need to look at several factors in this forecast

(1) Overall quality of potential economic PhD applicants -- I figure this is always trending up slightly as population grows while number of admissions slots stays the same, as good information about suitable PhD prepartion spreads more widely, etc, etc.

(2) Number of potential econ PhD applicants choosing to apply to grad school -- definitely less than last year. Note this includes both current seniors and those still in the private sector

(3) The demand side for PhD applicants -- I think budgets are still pretty tight. This'll definitely be as bad as last year, and perhaps worse. But I haven't seen any indicators that funds for PhD admissions have improved.

So I agree with previous posts suggesting (2) favors this being a less competitive year than last, but (1) and (3) are also factors working in the other direction that can't be ignored, and I have no clue which will dominate.
But whether it's slightly more, same, slightly less, there's no reason this should any impact on your application strategy.

[Gecko]

I'll plump for 2 - most people in their right minds won't be giving up the comfy, cushy job and pay for the phd..

[HLcee]

Originally Posted by Gecko

I'll plump for 2 - most people in their right minds won't be giving up the comfy, cushy job and pay for the phd..

---> either i'm an outlier or i'm not in my right mind, i'm not even an econ major !!

still would agree with (2), looking at my firm's and local houses' hiring activities (esp local banks - usually lots of hiring from top local econ grad schools). Good for me

[tm_guru]

Given the turnaround that appears to be happening in the economy, things cannot be as bad as last year. I feel however there may be a lot of students who decided they would prepare to apply when the recession was in full swing. Those classes are sunk costs and we all know how humans consider sunk costs...

[Gecko]

they ignore them

[Gecko]

Originally Posted by HLcee

---> either i'm an outlier or i'm not in my right mind, i'm not even an econ major !!

still would agree with (2), looking at my firm's and local houses' hiring activities (esp local banks - usually lots of hiring from top local econ grad schools). Good for me

look on the bright side - an outlier means that you are more unique

[Nanashi]

Last year was definitely more competitive. I know UBC recieved over 600 applicantions for their Masters, when they normally recieve 350. If the overall job market is starting to recover, I do expect this year to be slightly less competitive. I suspect 2010 will be more competitive than 2008.