Profile Evaluation - what are my chances at the top 7?

[StructuralIOGuy]

Undergrad: Top 10 liberal arts college, 3.96 GPA
Coursework (All A's unless noted):
Math: Calc, Linear Algebra, Analysis I, Measure Theory, Functional Analysis, Topology, Stochastic Processes, Probability, Stats, Complex Analysis, Abs Algebra
Econ: Intros, Intermediate Micro (A-), Intermediate Macro, Finance, Game Theory, Accounting
PHD Econ: Econometrics (at a top department)

Research Experience: 1.5 years full time research in applied micro at a top department.
Rec letter: (a top department) two applied micro professors (supervisor), one macro-metrics professor (took econometrics), one finance professor (short term project supervisor); (undergrad) macro professor (took macro/finance with, TAed for).

Interest: Structural IO, finance, macro

What are my chances for the top 7 schools?

[8675309]

ask your professors they would know better. You should apply widely. Your application looks good and I'm sure you will get into a top 20 school and probably top 15, unless your letters are weak, or you bomb GRE. Really I wouldn't limit my self to top 7 schools. Top 7 programs don't consistently produce better candidates than top 15 schools do. Some top 15 programs place very well (Duke). Some top 7 programs place relatively poorly (Columbia). Also a top 15 school maybe stronger than top 10 schools in certain fields. Minnesota for example at least a couple of years ago was top 5 good at macro and certain kinds of finance. Macro faculty have moved around some, so I don't know if they are still as good. There is more than enough evidence that if your in the top 30 or so departments, the quality of your job market paper will matter much more than your school's rank.

[bholly]

Economists, I don't disagree with the principle, but I was thinking Harvard, MIT, Princeton, Yale, Stanford, Chicago, Berkeley would be the 'top 7' he meant - I'd be surprised if Columbia is included, as (based purely on what I keep reading here) it's usually 'top 10 or so' I think.

I'd also imagine he will apply to more than just those schools - you'd be crazy not to - I think he's just looking for how high his hopes should be about getting one of his top choices.

StructuralIOGuy, I really don't know. From what I can see everything looks very strong, so I'd say you have about as much chance as anyone, but I'm certainly no expert. Good luck.

[chisquared]

How have past applicants from your liberal arts college fared? What are your LORs going to be like?

[OutOfGame]

I am the op. Past top applicants (last 3 yrs) made their way to MIT, Harvard, Chicago after RAship. Letters will say I'm a really strong RA, TA, and top at taking classes (PHD); but my concern is that my independent research is not as stellar as some other top applicants might have - I don't have an idea that I think I'll work on for the next 5 yrs.

[8675309]

Economists, I don't disagree with the principle, but I was thinking Harvard, MIT, Princeton, Yale, Stanford, Chicago, Berkeley would be the 'top 7' he meant - I'd be surprised if Columbia is included, as (based purely on what I keep reading here) it's usually 'top 10 or so' I think.
.

There are are 50 top 40 schools, 13 top 10 schools. So its hard to say which the op is applying if he isn't specifying.

Example. I think most people would consider the top 10 to include :
Harvard, MIT, Chicago, Princeton, Stanford, Yale, Berkley, Columbia, NYU, U Penn, Northwestern, LSE. Then some people also include Minnesota, including the U.S. world news and report. Thats 13 schools.

The principle point is that the quality of program isn't perfectly measured in modern rankings. Modern rankings largely are constructed by the number of star researchers a school has or the number of top journals per capita. As you go up the rankings the two statements entail one another. The problem with this is even if there are several star researchers at a program, that's pretty meaningless if they don't actually work with students. The same is true if the advisors aren't aggressive about placement. I don't want to name too many places I've heard have bad reputations as it can be a controversial topic and one should also take second hand info with a grain of salt. Thats why I think students should be considered with fit more than rank. I definitely would contact 5th year grad students once you've been admitted to a program.

[blockRed]

I don't want to name too many places I've heard have bad reputations as it can be a controversial topic and one should also take second hand info with a grain of salt.

You should name the places.

It would obviously be "IMHO," but it would be a very helpful dissemination for those of us choosing places to apply this fall.