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Fall 2016 Applicant: Aiming Too High?


Master Swauss

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Hi All,

 

Hoping to get some feedback on my chances when I apply to PhD programs this fall. Any advice is greatly appreciated! Best of luck to everyone applying this year.

 

Type of Undergrad: Small liberal arts college; relatively unknown with no graduate program in economics.

Major(s): B.A. Economics, B.A. Political Science (Double Degrees), Minor in Mathematics

Undergrad GPA: 3.953 Cumulative, Economics 4.0, Mathematics 4.0

Relevant Honors: Honors Program, International Honor Society in Economics (Omicron Delta Epsilon).

GRE: Will take in August 2015, aiming for 165Q/160V/5AW or better

Math Courses: Differential Calculus (A), Integral Calculus (A), Multivariable Calculus (A), Differential Equations (A), Discrete Mathematics and Intro to Proof (A), Linear Algebra – proof based (Fall 2015), Probability and Statistics I – calculus based (Fall 2015).

Desperately wanted to take Real Analysis this fall but it conflicted with a required course in my major and neither department could change times or offer a directed study. Not offered again before I graduate. =,(

Econ Courses: Principles of Micro (A), Principles of Macro (A), Intermediate Micro (A), Intermediate Macro (A), Managerial Economics (A), Money and Finance (A), International Economics (A), Econometrics (A), Public Finance (Fall 2015).

Other Courses: Coursework in Constitutional Law, Foreign Policy and International Relations.

Letters of Recommendation: Very strong recommendations from three professors whom I have taken multiple classes with. Each ranks me in the top one percent of economics students in the history of the college (we might have a handful of students who went on to graduate school for economics in the last 30 or so years). One professor is the department chair, who I have done research with, one is the co-founder of a well-known journal on heterodox economics, and the third also teaches at a significantly more prestigious college in Boston.

Research Experience: Did econometrics research under the department chair measuring the contribution of exports to economic growth in Germany. Utilized time series data from FRED and cited other studies that employed Granger Causality and unit root cointegration tests.

Teaching Experience: Economics department tutor for over two years, assisting students in principles as well as Intermediate courses and upper-level electives. Mathematics tutor in the college’s drop-in tutoring center, helping students in courses ranging from pre-calculus to Differential Equations.

Research Interests: Time-Series Econometrics, Long-Run Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Public Finance, Microeconomics and Economic Development.... basically everything.

SOP: Will write; going to put a great deal of effort into crafting a bold, eye-catching SOP.

Other: Sometimes I wonder how aliens would allocate scarce resources that have alternative uses.

Also I’m working on teaching myself “R.”

Thinking of Applying to: Boston University, Brown University, UCSD, UCLA, Harvard (why not?), MIT (why not?), Boston College, Duke (maybe), Tufts (MA).

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Could you, instead of real analysis, take a course in topology? If you can take a course that is primarily point-set topology and not algebraic topology, that should serve as an excellent substitute. In my opinion, a rigorous course in topology is more difficult than an analysis course of equal rigor.

 

How well regarded is your college? If your program is well-known, then your professors will likely have connections to other institutions, etc. If your liberal arts college is elite, then it might be a different story. But from what you posted currently, I think you would have a shot at Boston College. Less so BU, and even less at Duke? Without understanding what "top 1% of students ever" means in the context of your college, it is hard to say.

 

As always with profiles like this, I suggest looking into RA positions like those posted on NBER. You have the grades and econometrics knowledge to be incredibly competitive for them. Plus, if you were to get an RA position at a top-10 place or so, then the schools you mentioned like BU, UCSD, UCLA, etc. would become mid-range targets rather than reach schools.

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Could you, instead of real analysis, take a course in topology? If you can take a course that is primarily point-set topology and not algebraic topology, that should serve as an excellent substitute. In my opinion, a rigorous course in topology is more difficult than an analysis course of equal rigor.

 

There might be a lower analysis course you could take as well. One program I've seen has real analysis as a 6000-level class and an intro analysis class as a 5000-level prereq. That might be another good alternative if you have that offering as it will still be a graduate class and will be a direct preparation for real if you can take it in the spring. I know you said it's not offered again before you graduate, but check with the math department and perhaps take it elsewhere as a transient.

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Just saw that OP mentioned unknown school. Disregard my second point then.

 

There might be a lower analysis course you could take as well. One program I've seen has real analysis as a 6000-level class and an intro analysis class as a 5000-level prereq. That might be another good alternative if you have that offering as it will still be a graduate class and will be a direct preparation for real if you can take it in the spring. I know you said it's not offered again before you graduate, but check with the math department and perhaps take it elsewhere as a transient.

 

But where is this suggestion of graduate courses coming from? It would definitely not be advisable to take graduate analysis if one has not taken undergrad analysis. If one hasn't taken the former, they would almost surely be lost in the latter.

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1. There doesn't seem to me to be an obvious distinction between being top 1% of the college in its history and top 1% of the college in each year

2. Most aspiring PhD students are probably top 1% in each year

3. Furthermore, if only a handful of students have went to PhD programs in your program's history, I imagine most of them were also top 1% of their year

4. Empirically, I knew people who had letters calling them the absolute top undergraduate student in their college over a decade, not just a percentile, and they nonetheless received numerous rejections.

 

=> You really shouldn't expect your letters to get you into a top 20 program. They might help, but most letters are that strong and your undergrad institution doesn't seem to have an established reputation. It seems to me you should focus on #20-#50 programs in your applications.

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i find profile evaluations to be too pessimistic around here lately, but i don't trust myself either. my advice is always to look for people similar to you in profiles & results threads

 

this profile looks similar to yours but with more math, got into some good schools

http://www.www.urch.com/forums/phd-economics/155010-profiles-results-2015-a-2.html#post993447

 

if you're self-motivated you can teach yourself real analysis from the book. i had a bad prof for one semester so i skipped lectures and read the book, got A. not saying it's best strategy but it's possible and you need some rigorous math

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Thanks to everyone who posted for the helpful feedback – I’m beginning the process of putting together pieces of information and application details and this sort of reflection is an important component.

 

While I won’t be able to take courses in Analysis or Topology (according to our course catalogue, no topology class exists outside of a faintly possible directed study....), I may be able to fit in a second semester of Probability and Statistics as well as something to the tune of Abstract Algebra next spring. However these likely won’t be included anywhere on the transcripts I send with my applications, so it may be too little too late. I must admit that typing out my profile made me realize how relatively little upper level mathematics I had compared to other applicants. Considering that I started in pre-calculus and worked my way through the minor, I can’t say I regret not having taken more classes. Perhaps that is something to mention in my statement of purpose.

 

I do like the idea of learning some Real on my own; picking up a copy of Rudin’s text the summer before beginning a PhD program is a smart plan regardless of whether or not I get graded for it.

 

I have also started to consider RA positions as an alternative route towards graduate school. I was aware the Federal Reserve Banks offered such programs but it never dawned on me to investigate NBER. Thanks for that.

 

At this point I am shying away from applying to top 10 schools. I will likely still give Harvard and MIT a shot, mostly because I grew up in the area, but perhaps the likes of UCSD, UCLA and Brown are a touch out of reach. In any case, I have a few months to decide.

 

My trump card in all of this is that one of my professors and letter-writers also teaches at a top 50 school that I plan on applying to (he may even be on the admissions committee, I don’t remember). Can anyone speak to how beneficial that might potentially be to my application at that particular school? I imagine that it would depend greatly on his clout in the program and a myriad of other factors, but if someone can speak from experience that it would not matter at all, that would be good to know.

 

Thanks again!!

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If you're not applying to other T15 schools, then don't waste your slots on Harvard/MIT. Every application counts in the end.

 

Connections do matter. About 2 months before application season I was told by one of my advisors that I was "guaranteed" an offer at one of my dream schools, as he knew the adcom chair. That took a lot of the pressure off, and the offer did materialize eventually. Different advisors do things differently, but if they're willing to go to bat for you, you'll probably have a much enhanced chance.

Edited by chateauheart
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  • 2 weeks later...
At this point I am shying away from applying to top 10 schools. I will likely still give Harvard and MIT a shot, mostly because I grew up in the area, but perhaps the likes of UCSD, UCLA and Brown are a touch out of reach. In any case, I have a few months to decide.

Nobody gets into Harvard and MIT who needs luck to get into UCSD, UCLA, and Brown. You're wasting your application fee.

 

I think UCSD, UCLA, and Brown are good reach schools for you. Apply across a broad range of school rankings, maybe ranks 10-50.

 

My trump card in all of this is that one of my professors and letter-writers also teaches at a top 50 school that I plan on applying to (he may even be on the admissions committee, I don’t remember). Can anyone speak to how beneficial that might potentially be to my application at that particular school? I imagine that it would depend greatly on his clout in the program and a myriad of other factors, but if someone can speak from experience that it would not matter at all, that would be good to know.

The advantage here is less that this person has an insider connection and more that they can potentially compare you to a stronger pool of students. If they are tenure track there, that's great news for you, as they will be able to compare you to graduate students. If not, you're still likely in better shape from being compared to undergrads at a competitive school (assuming that you compare favorably).

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I think you are aiming too high.

 

I met an admitted student at a visit day that I attended with a profile quite similar to yours. He came from a small liberal arts college, had excellent grades, a high GRE, and took about the same number and types of math classes that you have. Like you, he had very strong location preferences and therefore ended up applying to schools that were all in the same geographical region, which meant that he applied to a couple of top-10 schools, a few top-20, and a couple ranked 40-50. He only got into those in the 40-50 range, although he may have been able to get into a school ranked somewhat higher if he applied to any. He had never heard of the website before, and was therefore surprised to find out just how competitive this process really is.

 

I think people sometimes underestimate the (unfortunate) degree to which school rank matters in admissions. School rank and letter-writer connections matter a lot here. I think a case like yours is one in which you may want to consider doing a RA position or a (highly ranked) masters program prior to applying, because that could correct what is essentially the only flaw in your profile. If you do go this route, see if you can somehow take real analysis when doing so (as a non-degree student, perhaps).

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  • 2 months later...

I'll re-iterate the advice of every person who has ever responded to you on this forum: Do not waste application fees/time on top 10 programs (Harvard/MIT/UCSD). There's so much variance in admissions (and the variance is skewed towards rejections) that every application matters, and currently you are not applying to enough programs in your most competitive range.

 

Top 10 programs very rarely admit students from unknown colleges directly, and you also lack basic math courses. These two factors mean you will not get past the preliminary round at T10 programs. One can understand throwing a few apps at out-of-reach schools if there's a lot of uncertainty about the process, but here at TM we can come up with a fairly decent confidence interval from years of accumulated experience, and the right bound of that confidence interval is at a ~#20 or so PhD program for your profile. For that range, having BU, UCLA and Brown on your list is more than ambitious enough. Other posters feel free to correct me if they disagree.

 

(this is re: your post in the roll call thread)

Edited by chateauheart
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