CEMFI, for the possibility of getting better letters, alongside an overall better signal through good grades in PhD coursework, assuming you don't need to signal mathematical prowess any further.
LSE hands down. If you ace LSE, you have a shot at a top 10. You might not be able to get into a top 10 from CEMFI.
I also remembered you got into Duke. I'd go to Duke or LSE and not even consider the other schools, but if you're targeting a top 10 school, then LSE would be your only choice. Duke placed someone at my school (top 20ish) for the PHD program, but I don't know about a top 10.
CEMFI is an elite institution that fully supports each of its graduate students. LSE is a giant institution that produces a lot of graduates.If you think you are the top of the top student, then clear choice is LSE. If you are a decent student, than easily choose CEMFI!
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