If your letters are strong, it looks to me like you'd be competitive. It's important to remember how random admissions are, though. I watched several people get rejections/waitlists from BU and BC despite getting in at higher ranked programs. You may want to consider stretching out your applications with several more schools from 15-40 range to hedge.
Another option, which I'm a big advocate of, is considering taking 2 years as an RA at the Fed/NBER. I came from a no-name state school, and an RA job out of school gave me a massive boost, whether in better known letters, grad course(s) at a top university, or whatever direct signaling that post-grad RA work gives them. I was hesitant at first to add another two years to my path, but in retrospect it's been one of the best decisions I made. At least worth some consideration.