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Thread: 2019 Admission Sweat Thread

  1. #21
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    Re: 2019 Admission Sweat Thread

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    Quote Originally Posted by EXP View Post
    Occupy (distract) yourself with something else. Going on sites like this won't help with your obsession if you don't need any advice.
    Valid advice, but terribly difficult to follow through. The best middle ground would be at least to only check back in late-Jan/early-Feb since that's when the first couple offers start trickling in.

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    Re: 2019 Admission Sweat Thread

    I'm going to focus on my senior thesis, work out, and binge a bunch of TV shows while waiting lol

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    Re: 2019 Admission Sweat Thread

    The claims on page 1 that GRE scores do not predict performance is at odds with the empirical evidence. Athey et al. find that GRE scores strongly predict first year grades, and that first year grades predict job placements. (It is not surprising that controlling for the intermediate outcome, the correlation between GRE scores and predicted grades is small.) NB: economics departments care about first year grades because passing comps is a necessary condition for receiving a PhD, so even if GRE scores only predicted first year grades, it would be rational for admissions committees to consider them.

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    Re: 2019 Admission Sweat Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Prof View Post
    The claims on page 1 that GRE scores do not predict performance is at odds with the empirical evidence. Athey et al. find that GRE scores strongly predict first year grades, and that first year grades predict job placements. (It is not surprising that controlling for the intermediate outcome, the correlation between GRE scores and predicted grades is small.) NB: economics departments care about first year grades because passing comps is a necessary condition for receiving a PhD, so even if GRE scores only predicted first year grades, it would be rational for admissions committees to consider them.
    I hadn't seen the Athey et. al. article, so I appreciate your posting the link. I do not see where the authors say the GRE scores strongly predict first year grades. I probably just missed it. Could you point me to the appropriate point in the article.

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    Re: 2019 Admission Sweat Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by startz View Post
    I hadn't seen the Athey et. al. article, so I appreciate your posting the link. I do not see where the authors say the GRE scores strongly predict first year grades. I probably just missed it. Could you point me to the appropriate point in the article.
    I think Prof was referring to significant coefficients on Table 2 (Y = micro/macro/metrics grades, X = GRE scores).

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    Re: 2019 Admission Sweat Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mathenomics View Post
    I think Prof was referring to significant coefficients on Table 2 (Y = micro/macro/metrics grades, X = GRE scores).
    Could be, but significant coefficients and "strongly predict" aren't at all the same. I bring this up because (1) I'm always interested in what Prof has to say and (2) learning the difference between the two concepts is critically important for folks heading off to graduate school.

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    Re: 2019 Admission Sweat Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by startz View Post
    Could be, but significant coefficients and "strongly predict" aren't at all the same. I bring this up because (1) I'm always interested in what Prof has to say and (2) learning the difference between the two concepts is critically important for folks heading off to graduate school.
    In this case, the magnitude of the effects is important. I don't have GRE percentiles for the time frame of the data in the paper, but averaged over 2014-2017, a 160 on the quantitative section is the 74th percentile, and a 170 is the 96th percentile (https://www.ets.org/s/gre/pdf/gre_guide_table1a.pdf). Therefore, moving from a 160 to a 170 is associated with a 9.5 percentile (or 0.34 SD) increase in the micro grade (using estimates from Table 2, column 1). Note that I share the authors' interpretation that specifications controlling for admissions rank are less informative for this exercise because it is likely a function of GRE scores. This is as large as the premium associated with attending a top-15 university, for example.

    To the person who down-voted the previous post, why? What about the post was offensive or inaccurate?

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    Re: 2019 Admission Sweat Thread

    I took the GRE in 2013 and got a 162 in Quantitative for an equivalence to the 86th percentile... sorry if this may seem out of place but I thought I'd throw my 2 cents in too.

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    Re: 2019 Admission Sweat Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by dogbones View Post
    I took the GRE in 2013 and got a 162 in Quantitative for an equivalence to the 86th percentile... sorry if this may seem out of place but I thought I'd throw my 2 cents in too.
    These things change over time. I was able to find an old ETS guide that provides percentiles for 2011-2014: http://dbbs.wustl.edu/PortalDocs/GRE...ion%202014.pdf. In that time frame, a 160 was the 78th percentile and a 170 was the 98th percentile, which doesn't change the way I interpret the results.

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    Re: 2019 Admission Sweat Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Prof View Post
    In this case, the magnitude of the effects is important. I don't have GRE percentiles for the time frame of the data in the paper, but averaged over 2014-2017, a 160 on the quantitative section is the 74th percentile, and a 170 is the 96th percentile (https://www.ets.org/s/gre/pdf/gre_guide_table1a.pdf). Therefore, moving from a 160 to a 170 is associated with a 9.5 percentile (or 0.34 SD) increase in the micro grade (using estimates from Table 2, column 1). Note that I share the authors' interpretation that specifications controlling for admissions rank are less informative for this exercise because it is likely a function of GRE scores. This is as large as the premium associated with attending a top-15 university, for example.

    To the person who down-voted the previous post, why? What about the post was offensive or inaccurate?
    Very clear. Thank you.

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