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cdreier

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At this point this is just a timekiller for me, and something to basically make myself sweat a little more for the next month or two. All but one application has been submitted.

 

Type of Undergrad: B.A. Economics with Honors, B.A Math (Top 15 Public University, top 15 econ dept)

Undergrad GPA: 3.68 overall, 3.7 in major

Type of Grad:N/A

Grad GPA: N/A

GRE: 167 V, 170Q, 5.5 W

Math Courses: Multivariable Calculus (C, first semester of freshman year was rough), Linear Algebra and Differential Equations (A), Real Analysis (A), Complex/Functional Analysis (B), Math Logic (A), Modern Algebra (A), Prob Theory (B), Math of Finance (Stochastic Calculus, A-)

Econ Courses (undergrad+grad): Honors Macro (A-), Honors Micro(A), Intro Metrics (A), Game Theory (A), Honors Thesis (A-), Behavioral Econ (A), PhD Econometrics (B), International Econ (A-), Numerical Methods for Macro (A-)

Further Edu: A couple Post-Bacc classes at top 5 econ university

Letters of Recommendation: Thesis advisor (very prominent macroeconomist/econometrician), one very strong letter from the labor economist I RA for at a Fed Bank, one strong letter from the econometrician I RA for at a Fed Bank

 

Research Experience: Full time RA in the research department at a Fed bank for 3 years, extensive experience in a variety of research projects, coauthored paper in progress, many independent write-ups, but no fully independent, full research projects.

Teaching Experience: N/A

Research Interests: Macro/empirical labor, game theory, behavioral

Statement of Purpose: Fairly strong I think, edited by professors in various top departments, each tailored to the specific school (but no requests to work with specific profs)

 

Concerns: A couple spotty math grades/slightly iffy GPA, little tangible research output

Coding skills: Quite experienced in Stata, R, LaTex, Matlab

Applying to: Most of the top 20 in US + LSE

Edited by cdreier
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I think you’ll get several offers in the top 20, and depending on the strength of the rec letters, top 10 is possible.

 

Appreciate your input, it's about what I've heard from the professors I've met with to discuss applications. I think, perhaps like others in this position, I'm very susceptible to imposter syndrome. Even when I try to write an honest profile, I feel like I am overselling myself and schools will see right through it.

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I think you’ll get several offers in the top 20, and depending on the strength of the rec letters, top 10 is possible.

 

Could you provide a brief rationale for this opinion? Given that we’re both prospective applicants this year, this would help other forum visitors assess the merits of the argument for themselves.

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Could you provide a brief rationale for this opinion? Given that we’re both prospective applicants this year, this would help other forum visitors assess the merits of the argument for themselves.

 

I know it's not what you asked, but I can summarize what I have been told.

 

Strengths: Relatively strong undergrad institution with good reputation for PhD placement; (for the most part) aptitude and interest in the mathematics required for more theoretical work; strong research background, both in nitty gritty data and coding work and the larger picture of original research; one very strong LOR from a top 15 PhD that knows me very well, one from a very big name economist; strong GRE scores.

 

Weaknesses: A couple questionable grades might cause doubts; given my length of time out of undergrad, one might like to see a little more in the way of complete independent research; third LOR is strong but from a relatively new, unknown top 20 PhD economist.

 

Weaknesses make top 10 a little bit of a stretch, but there's a chance that a very strong letter and persistent reaching out could make a connection with a top 10 department.

 

This is a combination of assessments from economists in my department, professors I have visited, and my own experience mixed in, take it with a grain of salt. I'm sure more experienced folks here have better, more accurate thoughts.

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Could you provide a brief rationale for this opinion? Given that we’re both prospective applicants this year, this would help other forum visitors assess the merits of the argument for themselves.

 

It’s honestly just a hunch I get from reading past profiles and results threads, so forum visitors should take me with a grain of salt.

 

I tend to summarize profiles with the following in mind:

-GRE Q >= 167

-Undergrad pedigree/reputation

-Academics (grades in math/econ courses, weighted by how advanced they are)

-Research experience

-Rec letters

 

I see rec letters as something that will push a candidate above or below a certain rank grouping. OP has a good undergrad pedigree (top 15) and strong research experience (Fed + thesis). They did not have straight As but had As in Analysis, Linear and the honors intermediate econ sequence. If they’d gotten straight As, I would have guessed a top 10 placement. The C in multi (which I think is forgivable given it happened in the first semester of college and how anomalous it was compared to the rest of their transcript) and B in Grad Metrics caused me to be more conservative in my evaluation.

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It’s honestly just a hunch I get from reading past profiles and results threads, so forum visitors should take me with a grain of salt.

 

I tend to summarize profiles with the following in mind:

-GRE Q >= 167

-Undergrad pedigree/reputation

-Academics (grades in math/econ courses, weighted by how advanced they are)

-Research experience

-Rec letters

 

I see rec letters as something that will push a candidate above or below a certain rank grouping. OP has a good undergrad pedigree (top 15) and strong research experience (Fed + thesis). They did not have straight As but had As in Analysis, Linear and the honors intermediate econ sequence. If they’d gotten straight As, I would have guessed a top 10 placement. The C in multi (which I think is forgivable given it happened in the first semester of college and how anomalous it was compared to the rest of their transcript) and B in Grad Metrics caused me to be more conservative in my evaluation.

 

From my only slightly more informed opinion (I am just a first year) this seems like a solid heuristic to use for rough evaluation. OP should just remember that things are random (different departments have different unstated goals) and there is no golden ticket. It looks like the OP is in a good position to defend their C in multi as a early college mishap, given the good GRE score and other math classes at a good college. I would recommend (I guess this is mostly pointless since apps are done) that the OP or anyone in a similar position be direct in addressing the C.

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Quite a similar profile to mine last year. I thought lack of independent research would kill me--I didn't have a senior thesis and all my work was in progress and coauthored. I also went to a much lower ranking undergrad; my GPA was higher but controlling for school I imagine we're in similar boats (also screwed up multivariable calc at start of freshman year lolz). FWIW I ended up with 1 top 5, 1 top 10, and 1 top 20. It's weird and random. You have a strong app. Wish we could relieve the noise you'll experience, because it does get wild, but I think it's pretty clear you'll get into a top 20, probably a top 10, and have a very real shot at a top 5. At this stage it's really gonna be some idiosyncratic and subjective factors. You'll do well. I'm rooting for you!
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It’s honestly just a hunch I get from reading past profiles and results threads, so forum visitors should take me with a grain of salt.

 

I tend to summarize profiles with the following in mind:

-GRE Q >= 167

-Undergrad pedigree/reputation

-Academics (grades in math/econ courses, weighted by how advanced they are)

-Research experience

-Rec letters

 

I see rec letters as something that will push a candidate above or below a certain rank grouping. OP has a good undergrad pedigree (top 15) and strong research experience (Fed + thesis). They did not have straight As but had As in Analysis, Linear and the honors intermediate econ sequence. If they’d gotten straight As, I would have guessed a top 10 placement. The C in multi (which I think is forgivable given it happened in the first semester of college and how anomalous it was compared to the rest of their transcript) and B in Grad Metrics caused me to be more conservative in my evaluation.

 

This is a much more informative post. Thanks! Looking forward to hearing others’ thoughts

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Quite a similar profile to mine last year. I thought lack of independent research would kill me--I didn't have a senior thesis and all my work was in progress and coauthored. I also went to a much lower ranking undergrad; my GPA was higher but controlling for school I imagine we're in similar boats (also screwed up multivariable calc at start of freshman year lolz). FWIW I ended up with 1 top 5, 1 top 10, and 1 top 20. It's weird and random. You have a strong app. Wish we could relieve the noise you'll experience, because it does get wild, but I think it's pretty clear you'll get into a top 20, probably a top 10, and have a very real shot at a top 5. At this stage it's really gonna be some idiosyncratic and subjective factors. You'll do well. I'm rooting for you!

 

Cheers, thanks! That's encouraging to hear, I'm aware of all the randomness that goes on, which is why I applied to probably too many schools. Glad I'm not the only one with that freshman fumble, that class just ran over me for some reason.

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To be honest, this is a very strong profile. I think they weigh research experience more than anything. I think your grade is fine, they stop caring about grade as long as you have decent ones from important classes. The only thing I will potentially be worried about is the rec letters. Do the latter two of your letter writers work in a university? Or they are just research analysts? If they are active in academia, I won't be worried about anything. I mean three-year research experience is a lot.

And still one thing, is the grad metrics the only phd level you do? That may cause some concerns since they want to make sure that you pass the first year cores. I have sort of similar problem, since I got a B+ from the second macro core (they have 3 macro cores). But I end up getting one rec letter from the professor teaching the third macro core. If there's any evidence that can convince them that you can pass the core, I think this is a solid top 10 profile.

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To be honest, this is a very strong profile. I think they weigh research experience more than anything. I think your grade is fine, they stop caring about grade as long as you have decent ones from important classes. The only thing I will potentially be worried about is the rec letters. Do the latter two of your letter writers work in a university? Or they are just research analysts? If they are active in academia, I won't be worried about anything. I mean three-year research experience is a lot.

And still one thing, is the grad metrics the only phd level you do? That may cause some concerns since they want to make sure that you pass the first year cores. I have sort of similar problem, since I got a B+ from the second macro core (they have 3 macro cores). But I end up getting one rec letter from the professor teaching the third macro core. If there's any evidence that can convince them that you can pass the core, I think this is a solid top 10 profile.

 

Yea, so my impression is that they really want to gauge two things: Will you make it past the first year courses, and conditional on that, will you be able to produce quality research? I think that in general my math has shown that the first is true, and my RA experience has shown the second, but I do not think that everyone that reads the application with a very critical eye would be convinced of that. And your point about grad classes is valid, knowing what I know now I would have taken either the Micro or Macro sequence while here at my job, but by the time I realized the value of that it was too late. I think those are the soft spots of my application, and why I think top 10 is a slight stretch for me.

 

And to answer your other question, yes both of my other letters are from academic economists, in the research department of a Federal Reserve bank. The strongest letter is from a top 5% Repec economist who I have worked directly with for 3 years, but the other is a younger economist who is not well known. I know that last one will be weaker, but he knows me well and can speak directly to my ability as a researcher as well. I believe two of the letters will be very strong, and the third strong but from a weaker source. If I had to guess, I would estimate that the letters overall are a bit of a boost relative to people with otherwise similar profiles?

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The most important factor isn't grades, gre's, graduate courses, or even research. It's what recommenders say about you. What the recommenders say will be influenced, of course, by grades, gre's, graduate courses, and research. And candidates generally don't know how to read the letters.

 

A letter that says "Sally is better than Jonny who I sent to Penn last year but not quite so good as Emily who I sent to Harvard the year before," is likely to get Sally into a top 5 or 10 program. "Henry is a very hard-working, bright student with a great personality who I strongly recommend to serious graduate programs" will probably exclude Henry from the top 20...and quite possibly from the top 40.

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The most important factor isn't grades, gre's, graduate courses, or even research. It's what recommenders say about you. What the recommenders say will be influenced, of course, by grades, gre's, graduate courses, and research. And candidates generally don't know how to read the letters.

 

A letter that says "Sally is better than Jonny who I sent to Penn last year but not quite so good as Emily who I sent to Harvard the year before," is likely to get Sally into a top 5 or 10 program. "Henry is a very hard-working, bright student with a great personality who I strongly recommend to serious graduate programs" will probably exclude Henry from the top 20...and quite possibly from the top 40.

 

I’m a student so obviouly ignorant about this, but doesn’t the recommendation form already ask the prof to evaluate how the applicant stacks up against students/previous applicants at the school they’re applying to?

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There isn't always a form. And where a numerical ranking is sometimes asked for, the answers are meaningless. I just read over 600 letters. Our system asks for a numerical ranking. I would guess 95 percent put the student in the top 2 percent, which is the highest category.

 

There are other signals in letters that can be very strong of course. "Best student in the last 30 years" or "We will admit her to our PhD program, but she wants to go elsewhere" or "Would have been in the top of my cohort in graduate school." And the statements can't just be cheaptalk; the recommender also has to say what they've seen to support their conclusion.

 

This is one reason I suggest that students discuss their application list with recommenders, making it easy for the recommender to signal that the list is too aggressive (or not aiming high enough!) That's a way to really find out where a letter is likely to help you get in.

 

Three more things follow:

(1) This is why letters should generally be from economists. Economists know what admission committees are looking for.

(2) This one reason why being an RA post-bac can often be an advantage. A letter can make a comparison to other RAs who have gone on to grad school.

(3) This is a reason why students at schools that don't usually send to people to econ PhD programs are disadvantaged. Their recommenders often don't know how to write an effective letter

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There are other signals in letters that can be very strong of course. "Best student in the last 30 years" or "We will admit her to our PhD program, but she wants to go elsewhere" or "Would have been in the top of my cohort in graduate school." And the statements can't just be cheaptalk; the recommender also has to say what they've seen to support their conclusion.

 

Startz, I wonder if you have insight on the strength of an enthusiastic letter coming from a professor from a good school versus a letter from a PhD Economist at a research institution (like a Federal Reserve Bank). Given my situation I would hope there isn't a big difference, but I could also see why one might put a bit more weight on a current professor.

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