Attrition Rates

[asquare]

Originally Posted by asianeconomist

I would have thought that this type of attrition would be extremely rare, or is it not ?

Attrition after reaching candidacy is not rare. In fact, I would guess that in a reasonable number of programs, more students leave after passing their prelims (or just never complete the PhD) than fail out because of the prelims. I don't have exact numbers, but my impression is that is the case for some years at U-Mich. (That said, I think U-Mich does an excellent job of mentoring students through the research process, especially in the applied micro fields -- labor, PF, development).

The PhD is less than halfway done when you pass the micro and macro exams. Those exams are big and real hurdles and I'm not trying to diminish the importance or accomplishment of passing them. However, the most important part of the PhD program is research. Research is also less defined, less structured, and less similar to what most students have experience with. There's no "formula" for getting it right. To me, it's not a surprise that the research is at least as great a hurdle as the course work.

Just as schools can't be held accountable for every student who fails prelims, they can't be held accountable for every student who does not complete a dissertation despite passing prelims. However, I think patterns of non completion amongst candidates are as telling as prelim fail rates, and worth considering when choosing between otherwise similar schools.

[mosfro]

i must add that there were losers like me who could not hold down the gpa requirement and were asked to leave before being able to attempt the prelims
... i must add, that I think I am the only one I've ever heard of this happening to...mainly because normally, if a student was strugglin in the first few weeks of the first semester because he was lacking multiv. calculus, he would probably have realized that he was underprepared and would have voluntarily left the program before wasting his time

I also think that many phd students who leave before the Phd degree, or defense of a dissertation may be in programs that are lower on the rankings, mainly because if they were to land some corporate gig after the degree, the corps / private companies dont care too much about the dissertation. They sometimes only care that you have the tools necessary to do so.

[YoungEconomist]

Originally Posted by mosfro

the corps / private companies dont care too much about the dissertation. They sometimes only care that you have the tools necessary to do so.

I agree that they would only care about you having the tools to complete a dissertation, rather than the dissertation itself. However, they can't really know if you possess those skills unless you complete a dissertation. As asquare already pointed out, some people pass prelims and then struggle writing a dissertation.

[Karina 07]

Originally Posted by asianeconomist

Thanks a lot for the useful post.

I would have thought that this type of attrition would be extremely rare, or is it not ?

Definitely not rare. Quite possibly larger than attrition in the first two years. Think about it, isn't it usually said that something like 60-70% of those who start an econ Ph.D. program complete it? (I remember seeing that around the web and on TM.) If 10% drop out during the first year or two, the rest of that has to come from those who drop out later; even if it's 20% who drop out in the first year for whatever reason, it could be 20:20. I would think that in the majority of programs the bulk of the overall attrition comes from people who just leave for personal reasons. There are a lot of people who don't realize what research is all about and are perfectly happy aceing classes when all of a sudden research hits them like a brick wall.

[GymShorts]

I wonder if some plan to drop out after 2 years so they can earn a funded masters degree, rather than pay a lot of money to a terminal masters program.

[bertthepuppy]

This may be a stretch but the prof. I was an RA for once told me that some foreigners start econ Ph.D.s in the U.S. because they want to have children that are U.S. citizens. They are smart and talented enough to complete the Ph.D., but they don't desire it. I was surprised by this hypothesis, but it could be true.

[GymShorts]

Originally Posted by bertthepuppy

This may be a stretch but the prof. I was an RA for once told me that some foreigners start econ Ph.D.s in the U.S. because they want to have children that are U.S. citizens. They are smart and talented enough to complete the Ph.D., but they don't desire it. I was surprised by this hypothesis, but it could be true.

It wouldn't surprise me if that was a major reason for some. One of my professor says he got his PhD so he wouldn't have to return to his home country, where there was a war at the time, because he knew he would've been drafted.

[YoungEconomist]

Originally Posted by GymShorts

I wonder if some plan to drop out after 2 years so they can earn a funded masters degree, rather than pay a lot of money to a terminal masters program.

I guarantee some people do this. I would imagine the number is probably not that high though, because of the competitiveness of getting funded offers at Econ PhD programs (not to mention the rigour of the core classes). A chemistry teacher at my community college did exactly this, that is, she entered a chemistry PhD program intending to leave with the masters degree. If I only wanted a masters in econ, I'd probably do this. One reason would be to save money. The second and more important reason is that I believe the rigour would come in handy in the job market (especially the econometrics background).

[asianeconomist]

Originally Posted by bertthepuppy

This may be a stretch but the prof. I was an RA for once told me that some foreigners start econ Ph.D.s in the U.S. because they want to have children that are U.S. citizens. They are smart and talented enough to complete the Ph.D., but they don't desire it. I was surprised by this hypothesis, but it could be true.

This sounds pretty weird from a north-american context I guess, but I actually know at least one teacher of mine who had similar plans.

[spork88]

Originally Posted by YoungEconomist

If MIT failed 75% of those taking the prelims, but somewhere like Minnesota only failed 10%, are you really telling me you'd still go to MIT. I think attrition is a very reasonable thing to be concerned about, and will likely play a role in the offers I accept. Some schools fail about 50% of those that take the prelims, and I would consider that a pretty risky proposition, and I'd definitely be willing to drop down in the rankings a bit if I could go somewhere where it was only 20%.

I think you're right. I read a post on another forum from a 3rd or 4th year grad student (at Wisconsin maybe) who said he would have gone somewhere else if he had known about the attrition rate.