Attrition Rates

[argmax]

Originally Posted by bertthepuppy

This may be a stretch but the prof. I was an RA for once told me that some foreigners start econ Ph.D.s in the U.S. because they want to have children that are U.S. citizens. They are smart and talented enough to complete the Ph.D., but they don't desire it. I was surprised by this hypothesis, but it could be true.

I am surprised as you, but i still think these kind of people are the very rare. I have never heard of anything like this before, so i think the effect of these people in attrition is very little to be considered.

I also think that the importance one gives to attrition is very much related with self-confidence. Obviously there is some randomness about the issue but you would still go to MIT over Minnesota (to continue with the example about 75% vs 10% attrition rates) if you are pretty confident you will pass. It is certain that attrition matter in your decision but how much it does is very personal and has a lot to do with self confidence.

[macroeconomicus]

I could concede that a lot of PhD programs at relatively unknown state universities are filled with foreign students who view their PhD course as a necessary stepping stone and possibly a necessary evil on the way of becoming a US citizen. However, if you're smart enough to be admitted into a good US PhD program, there are far easier ways to get into the united states and obtain a good job compared to going through the whole Ph.D. ordeal.

[Lokayot]

Unfortunately, it is not always the case. It is actually easier to enter USA through the education programs for people from a lot of countries.

[kartelite]

Originally Posted by macroeconomicus

there are far easier ways to get into the united states and obtain a good job compared to going through the whole Ph.D. ordeal.

Particularly if you're from, say, Cuba.

[Lokayot]

And a lot of Muslim (and developing) countries too.

[kartelite]

Originally Posted by Lokayot

And a lot of Muslim (and developing) countries too.

Wait, isn't that a pretty long swim?

[YoungEconomist]

Originally Posted by kartelite

Particularly if you're from, say, Cuba.

LOL

I thought you were talking about swimming, but I wasn't sure until the post below.

Originally Posted by kartelite

Wait, isn't that a pretty long swim?

[Lokayot]

oh haha, I interpreted it wrongly

[imperfectinformation]

Originally Posted by YoungEconomist

If MIT failed 75% of those taking the prelims, but somewhere like Minnesota only failed 10%...

An update to your beliefs here. Minnesota fails about 40% on each the macro and micro prelim lately. So really the probability of passing both might be only a bit better than 50-50.

[YoungEconomist]

Originally Posted by imperfectinformation

An update to your beliefs here. Minnesota fails about 40% on each the macro and micro prelim lately. So really the probability of passing both might be only a bit better than 50-50.

I wasn't saying that those stats were accurate. I was setting up a hypothetical scenario between 2 programs. I guess I could have said this instead: "If the #1 program failed 75% of 1st year student, but the #15 program only failed 10%..."