Since everyone else is doing it - another prediction thread

[kipfilet]

PROFILE:
Type of Undergrad: Economics, top school in small European country
Undergrad GPA: 18.4/20, top of my class
Type of Grad: MPhil in Economics (2 year Masters including 1st year PhD coursework, in progress, expecting to finish it in June)
Grad GPA: 19/20, 4.0/4.0 according to my school's conversion
GRE: Q800, V710, AWA 5.0
Math Courses: Calc I (already includes some intro real analysis and lots of proofs), Calc II (multivariate calc, topology, lots of optimisation), Linear Algebra, Math I (difference eqns, dynamic programming, discrete-time optimization), Math II (differential eqns, optimal control). All A's. Advanced Math (in progress: advanced topology and real analysis, measure theory, correspondence theory).
Econ Courses (grad-level): Macro I, Micro I, Macro Theory I, Macro Theory II, Micro Theory I (all semester long), lots of random trimester courses (game theory I and II, time series, microeconometrics, energy economics, etc)
Econ Courses (undergrad-level): Lots of them. In my country, programs are not flexible at all. We spend 3 years being bombed with economics courses just about everything.
Other Courses: some Law, Finance and History courses. Two seminars on European Union institutions.
Letters of Recommendation: My thesis advisor and three assistant professors who know me well I guess (was a student and worked/working in projects with all of them) (PhDs Harvard, MIT, Chicago and UCLouvain)
Research Experience: Summer internship at a Ministry, applied macro research; lots of minor projects; macroeconometric paper with two colleagues; co-authoring an empirical paper with my advisor.
Teaching Experience: twice TA for Multivariate Calc, once TA for intermediate macro (all undergrad)
Research Interests: Macro macro macro: everything from growth and institutional economics to monetary policy and DSGEs
SOP: Pretty standard, not customised at all.
Concerns: Coming from a school that is virtually unknown in the US (and better known as a business school in Europe), guess this will be a major handicap
Other: TOEFL 119, 1 semester Erasmus in a well-known university in the Netherlands
Applying to: Harvard, MIT, Chicago, Princeton, Yale, Columbia, Stanford, Berkeley, Northwestern, Minnesota, UCLA, Pennsylvania, NYU, LSE, Oxford. If things start looking too grim, I will also consider Pompeu Fabra, CEMFI and Tinbergen.


Another major concern is the obvious one: am I being too ambitious? My school has sent people to the top 5 in the past, but competitiveness has increased exponentially in the last decade.

[DrStrangelurker]

I bet in at: NWU, Minnesota, UCLA, Penn, NYU, LSE, Oxford
for the first seven I can't say

[Charis]

Since everyone else is doing it...


Best line ever;). You should put it in your SOP if they ask you why do you want to study economics
(sorry I couldn't resist making the crack)

[kipfilet]

I love herd and bandwagon effects, that's actually the topic of my MPhil thesis :p

[triple_sec]

I bet in at: NWU, Minnesota, UCLA, Penn, NYU, LSE, Oxford
for the first seven I can't say

Let me give a prediction for the first eight. You don't want to know what this prediction is based on... :-)
IN: Harvard, MIT, Stanford
OUT: Chicago, Princeton, Yale, Columbia, Berkeley

[kipfilet]

Let me give a prediction for the first eight. You don't want to know what this prediction is based on... :-)
IN: Harvard, MIT, Stanford
OUT: Chicago, Princeton, Yale, Columbia, Berkeley

Wow, I would actually like to know what it is based on :) As a macro guy, MIT and Harvard are obviously dream-schools, but I'm taking them as far reaches. Any of the others you have mentioned would indeed make me a very happy man (like Columbia - in spite of everything, they appear to be godly at monetary and international).

[Elliephant]

(like Columbia - in spite of everything, they appear to be godly at monetary and international).

Especially CBS. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3u2qRXb4xCU&search=%22every%20breath%20you%20take%22)

[triple_sec]

Wow, I would actually like to know what it is based on :) As a macro guy, MIT and Harvard are obviously dream-schools, but I'm taking them as far reaches. Any of the others you have mentioned would indeed make me a very happy man (like Columbia - in spite of everything, they appear to be godly at monetary and international).

Do you really want to know? OK, here it is. Given that your profile is barely unsurpassable by human standards, the only reason I can imagine you would not be admitted to any of the top 8 is the "black box puzzle." That is, we simply do not know how exactly admission committees work, whether they have any formal or informal rules they follow, or the process is completely haphazard and arbitrary once top candidates go through the sieve. So I built a "model" (aren't I an economist, huh? :-)) for your admission in which, due to informational constraints as to how adcoms make a decision, I assumed that each top 8 place independently admits you with prob. 1/4. Then, for each school, I tossed a quarter twice and if both came up heads, I concluded that the school would admit you. You can see the realized outcome. ;-)

[chisquared]

Do you really want to know? OK, here it is. Given that your profile is barely unsurpassable by human standards, the only reason I can imagine you would not be admitted to any of the top 8 is the "black box puzzle." That is, we simply do not know how exactly admission committees work, whether they have any formal or informal rules they follow, or the process is completely haphazard and arbitrary once top candidates go through the sieve. So I built a "model" (aren't I an economist, huh? :-)) for your admission in which, due to informational constraints as to how adcoms make a decision, I assumed that each top 8 place independently admits you with prob. 1/4. Then, for each school, I tossed a quarter twice and if both came up heads, I concluded that the school would admit you. You can see the realized outcome. ;-)

I figured this involved coin-tossing of some sort.

Also, I see that you used Bernoulli's principle of insufficient reason right there. enginecon would be proud. ;)

[philecon]

I figured this involved coin-tossing of some sort.

Also, I see that you used Bernoulli's principle of insufficient reason right there. enginecon would be proud. ;)

LOL! Where is enginecon, anyway?

OnT: I think you have a good shot at Columbia, Penn, UCLA, Minnesota, NYU, LSE and Oxford. And please, please don't consider applying to Pompeu Fabra or CEMFI anymore. Give your slot to me. ;)

[Elliephant]

LOL! Where is enginecon, anyway?


Moderation queue.

[DrStrangelurker]

Moderation queue.
Hah, I couldn't help myself from laughing when I read this.

[kipfilet]

Just as with Ellie, philecon gains the award for most accurate prediction! Testmagic should consider marketing you as the Econ Grad school Paul the Octopus! Obviously, the prediction was not 100% accurate, but I either got in (Columbia, Penn, Minnesota, LSE and Oxford) or was waitlisted (UCLA, NYU) at all schools he mentioned. In fact, he only missed Chicago out of my acceptances (and even that I believe it was an outlier).


LOL! Where is enginecon, anyway?

OnT: I think you have a good shot at Columbia, Penn, UCLA, Minnesota, NYU, LSE and Oxford. And please, please don't consider applying to Pompeu Fabra or CEMFI anymore. Give your slot to me. ;)