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View Full Version : No Yale = No Hope?



jmancer
02-23-2008, 02:34 AM
How random is this process in terms of the types of students top programs look for? do some schools focus more on mathy types than others that favor more creative, applied types?

basically, by not getting into yale, should we lose hope regarding our changes for other top programs? or is this process so random or do program preferences differ enough that its not reasonable to conclude that those of us who didnt get in have no shot at other places

polkaparty
02-23-2008, 02:35 AM
basically, by not getting into yale, should we lose hope regarding our changes for other top programs?

I already mentioned this in the yale thread. Read this (http://www.urch.com/forums/phd-economics/64943-harvard-admission.html). There is hope.

macbookpro
02-23-2008, 02:47 AM
Q: what is the singular form of data?
A: anecdote

polkaparty
02-23-2008, 02:59 AM
Q: what is the singular form of data?
A: anecdote

I proved that P(admit at other top school | reject yale) > 0

Thus hope exists, answering the question which I quoted. geez....

macbookpro
02-23-2008, 03:16 AM
sorry, I didnt mean to be harsh

Internationalstudent08
02-23-2008, 03:57 AM
I will say something controversial here, but I believe there is something in it: We all believe that the process is random to some extent. Otherwise, nobody would apply to all top 5 schools. We would realize that if we don't get into one of them, it's not possible to get into any of them (assuming that the chance is approximately equal). So, we'd just pick the one we like the most and we would apply to fewer schools overall. The fact that some of us apply to 10 schools that are in the same range (whether this is 1-20. 10-30, 30-40 or whatever) is the best indication that we consider the process to be kinda random. The second line in my argument is that we can't be THAT stupid. Of course, we don't have good information about the admission process, but still we rely on the experiences of people who applied in the past and on the advices of our profs (one of my recommenders told me to apply to all top-10... i think that he overestimated my chances, but anyway i ended up applying to 8 out of the top 15 + 2 others).

needeconhelp
02-23-2008, 04:08 AM
One of my recommender asked me to apply to 20 places. I am guessing top-20 because he believed that I could get into a top-5.

asianecon
02-23-2008, 04:12 AM
I will say something controversial here, but I believe there is something in it: We all believe that the process is random to some extent. Otherwise, nobody would apply to all top 5 schools. We would realize that if we don't get into one of them, it's not possible to get into any of them (assuming that the chance is approximately equal). So, we'd just pick the one we like the most and we would apply to fewer schools overall. The fact that some of us apply to 10 schools that are in the same range (whether this is 1-20. 10-30, 30-40 or whatever) is the best indication that we consider the process to be kinda random. The second line in my argument is that we can't be THAT stupid. Of course, we don't have good information about the admission process, but still we rely on the experiences of people who applied in the past and on the advices of our profs (one of my recommenders told me to apply to all top-10... i think that he overestimated my chances, but anyway i ended up applying to 8 out of the top 15 + 2 others).


I love this talk about "randomness". For me I'd rather see it as applicants having incomplete information when estimating how good their profiles would predict the probability of getting admitted. I can envision 3 types of applicants: Those who estimate their chances by

1. Simple OLS with omitted variables, ie estimates might be totally off regardless of how many schools you apply to

2. Consistent but inefficient, ie those who play the numbers game (interestingly, if someone say uses a purely parametric discrete choice model, heteroskedasticity can lead to inconsistency!)

3. Consistent and efficient, ie those who apply to 5-10 schools within the same range only to average out the heterogeneity among similarly ranked schools

I'd love to get some data on applications and see where most people (e.g. in TM) fit.

trentnin
02-23-2008, 04:14 AM
I got interviewed by Harvard Bus. Econ but got rejected by Yale today. If I get in HBS, my case will be a counter-example of the statement that no Yale = no hope.

I thought getting an interview for HBS is a good indicator of the strength of my profile, so I was kind of confident in getting accepted to Yale. I got extremely nervous today. :mad:
BTW, as looking at the results of the last year, I found a guy who got in most of top 5 schools but got rejected by Berkeley, which I think is comparable to Yale.

needeconhelp
02-23-2008, 04:14 AM
I love this talk about "randomness". For me I'd rather see it as applicants having incomplete information when estimating how good their profiles would predict the probability of getting admitted. I can envision 3 types of applicants: Those who estimate their chances by

1. Simple OLS with omitted variables, ie estimates might be totally off regardless of how many schools you apply to

2. Consistent but inefficient, ie those who play the numbers game

3. Consistent and efficient, ie those who apply to 5-10 schools within the same range only to average out the heterogeneity among similarly ranked schools

I'd love to get some data on applications and see where most people (e.g. in TM) fit.

Why don't you use Roll call 2007 and Roll Call 2006.

asianecon
02-23-2008, 04:16 AM
Why don't you use Roll call 2007 and Roll Call 2006.

I might but it's too much of an effort to parse (but it is possible..I'll just note how most people write the list of schools they applied to, scrape and parse TM using Perl)

asianecon
02-23-2008, 04:18 AM
I got interviewed by Harvard Bus. Econ but got rejected by Yale today. If I get in HBS, my case will be a counter-example of the statement that no Yale = no hope.

I thought getting an interview for HBS is a good indicator of the strength of my profile, so I was kind of confident in getting accepted to Yale. I got extremely nervous today. :mad:
BTW, as looking at the results of the last year, I found a guy who got in most of top 5 schools but got rejected by Berkeley, which I think is comparable to Yale.

Hi Trentnin. I think I know this guy. Is he the one at HBS now?

Anyway, I guess there's still no news from HBS but probably I'll choose Yale over HBS given the former funds me well enough. I think Pakes mentioned that I can't go wrong choosing Yale simply because of their strength in metrics.

trentnin
02-23-2008, 04:23 AM
Hey, asianecon. Yeah, you know me. We talked about our interview via emails. I am sure that HBS will release their results next week. Yale would be your top choice??

asianecon
02-23-2008, 04:28 AM
Hey, asianecon. Yeah, you know me. We talked about our interview via emails. I am sure that HBS will release their results next week. Yale would be your top choice??

I was actually referring to the guy who got into most of the top schools except Berkeley (MIT and Princeton). I know him.


Of course I remember you, my Asian friend.


Probably yes, Yale is my top choice now (assuming they give me enough funding and also assuming I have a choice, ex post)

P=NP
02-23-2008, 02:48 PM
Someone said something like this last year (I forget who, sorry):
Each year there's a set of the top 100 or so applicants.
*The top 10 will get in everywhere
*The top 20 will get into most places
*The rest will get into at least one place (in the top 7)

So I think not getting into Yale is just a sign that you're probably not one of the 'top 10'. But that's ok, choices are bad (the standup economist did his act at our Christmas party)
YouTube - Principles of economics, translated (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVp8UGjECt4)

Antonio
02-23-2008, 03:19 PM
I am not as optimistic as you guys...at least with respect to my chances...I look at the rejection from Yale as a very bad signal for the other 13 for which I am waiting....
Even if there is some randomness in the game, I think that there is a strong rational component: if Yale rejects me it means that they think I am not good for such a type of program...
Randomness applies to those guys who get 5 offers and 5 rejections within the TOP 10....and not to those like me....

jmancer
02-23-2008, 07:17 PM
antonio,

how do you know you arent observing one of those 5 rejections here? i think thats the point

Antonio
02-23-2008, 07:19 PM
yep...your answer is correct!

But it does not make me feel more confortable....let's start hoping again!