I need to improve my writing skills so if you see any fault please point it out I need a lot of advice.
The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below- normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The prediction if the increased demand for heating oil by the author at first glance seems convincing but if read carefully we can see some unconvincing assumptions used in the argument. These flaws include the prediction of the future without using reliable information, misunderstanding details and relying on old data of the community.
Firstly, The author uses the prediction of the climate forecasters to ensure the assumption that the 90 days of below-normal temperature will continue. The author did not give us any detail about the forecast of these forecaster but only pick up the result and use it to create solution that benefit his own ideas. Also, the author should explain more about the temperature of the regions in more detailed fashion. The word typically cold did not clarify that the region is cold enough to uses the heating oil in a daily basis. The people who lived there may feel comfortable with the temperature already making it warm for them but for the author who may not encountered these temperature in a daily basis may considered it cold every day during the below-normal temperature period. The argument can be enhanced if the author give us more detailed about the climate prediction to confirms that the assumption is true, also the author should be more detailed on how cold is the weather to confirms that the region is very cold that the population must use heating oil on a daily basis.
Secondly, the author explained that there will be more house built due to the population growth this claims that more people will be living here but how much more how big is this population growth. The word population growth was not explain clearly for example the community may have only 25 houses but due to the population growth there will be 10 more houses built which may make the usage of heating oil to increase but too small we can see profit. Also, there is a probability that the new houses were not built because of the population growth but because of the potential of the region as a vacation spot for family some family may considered building vacation house here but comes only during the vacation which may not use heating oil on a daily basis but only weeks which may render the conclusion of the author unconvincing. The author may improve his argument by giving more detail on the cause of the population growth and how great is the population growth.
Finally, the unstated assumption that the author forget to considered is that of another heating sources. The conclusion of the author that considered investing in the heating oil industry may be rendered fault if the population changes the heating source. The author state that the heating oil is the “traditional fuel for heating” but in the years to come there may be more heating source that is more reliable and cheaper. The author should look more into the probability of another heating source available for the population and comes up with a better argument that clearly explain why the heating oil will still be the heating source this region will use.
In conclusion, the author recommendation in the heating oil investment has failed to establish a convincing statement but can still be improve by conducting more researches and using the data that he didn’t state to help enhance his assumptions.
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