Anyone have any idea if/how this thing is going to effect entering 1st year PhD’s? Should I be prepared for an email revoking or reducing my stipend? Or even expecting postponement of the program?
Welp... looks like the academic market this coming year may be rough sledding
Incomplete/Unofficial/ Unconfirmed List of Schools That Have Announced Hiring Freezes or Pauses, Professor Is In - Google Docs
I think that this year's market is going to be delayed, but hopefully not too badly impacted. I have a lot of friends who are going to be on the market this fall and they are all pretty stressed about this.
How are you all interpreting these hiring freezes as it pertains to downstream job market? I feel that the ripple effects of very few placements of new PhD's this year could have a ripple effect on the market that lasts 4-5 years. Particularly considering that in the last recession, professorial jobs were cut and not replaced (except with adjuncts).
I ask as someone entering a PhD cohort this coming fall.
In general, the job market process is not at all transparent, so it's tough to provide any sort of prediction interval on how much harder it will be. From my experience, I'd estimate that 1/4 to 1/3 of graduating Management PhD students do not take TT Assistant Prof jobs (out of choice, due to being uncompetitive, or most likely, some combination of the two). This fact isn't publicized by schools for obvious reasons. You should anticipate this being the baseline environment for the foreseeable future.
For comparison, it seems like the 2008 recession acted as a "ratchet" in many schools; administrators found "fat" to cut from school budgets and haven't added it back since. I imagine the same thing, on average and probably to a lesser degree, will happen here too. Outside of maintaining a certain percent of scholarly professors for AACSB credentials, there's no hard requirement stopping admins from replacing tenure track researchers with an adjunct who does 3x the teaching work for 1/3 of the price.
I'm not sure about pent up demand. I think it's much more likely that we'll develop pent up supply (to a lesser degree, like every other field in academia). Academia is particularly good at creating cheap, temporary ways to allow PhDs to continue on their quest for TT jobs. Many (if not most) students in STR/OB are taking a 6th year, often unpaid, which is financially the best way for universities to preserve staff dedicated to maintain research output. Post-docs are a "second best", since you need to pay them a little more than PhDs, yet post-docs are usually about 1/3 the cost of TT profs with about the same research ability. Schools generally are wary of decreasing PhD spots, since it looks like a bad quality signal for the program, so incoming PhD supply will probably stay pretty constant. I wouldn't anticipate a mad rush of people to MBAs, so faculty hiring probably won't be especially robust. The 'Flight To Quality' In The MBA Market. On the bright side, growing interest in specialized programs may increase faculty hiring in certain non-management fields (finance: risk management, operations: data science, etc.).
Once economic conditions improve, universities will have little financial incentive to get rid of post-doc positions, the 6th year trend, etc., leading to a larger supply in long-run equilibrium. Yes, some folks will "wise up" and leave for more stable pastures in industry. If other PhD fields are an indication, however, this reality will likely lead to more folks competing for about the same number of TT jobs year over year, leading to a "ratchet effect".
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)