Chance to prove your forecasting skills and predict my outcomes

[SebastianECON]

As suggested by tm_member I'll post my profile and schools. In April I'll tell you guys how I did.

 

PROFILE:

 

Type of Undergrad: Economics, Top Colombian University (Javeriana) (500 globally)

 

Undergrad GPA: 3.46/4.00

 

Type of Grad: M.A. in Economics, Javeriana

 

Grad GPA: 3.91/4.00

 

GRE: Q: 167 V: 161 AWA:3

 

Math Courses:

 

-Real Analysis (A) As a grad I took some analysis to compensate for my poor math grades as an undergrad

-I got C's in 4 math undergrad courses

-I got A's in 2 undergrad courses

 

Econ Courses (grad-level):

 

I got A's in all of my grad econ courses.

 

Econ Courses (undergrad-level):

I got A's in all of my undergrad econ courses.

 

Other Courses: I didn't include other coursework on my applications.

 

Letters of Recommendation:

 

Economics Dean at my University (Ph.D. from Brown)

Economics Professor at my University (Ph.D. from NYU)

Researcher at the Central Bank (Ph.D. from Cornell))

Research Experience:

Solo paper in Economics Systems (JCR 1.2 Impact Factor)

Co-authored paper in International Finance (JCR 1.2 Impact Factor)

Co-authored paper in Economics Systems (JCR 0.6 Impact Factor)

Co-authored paper in a Scopus Journal

Co-authored paper in a national journal

One working paper

One co-authored book chapter

 

Teaching Experience: None

Research Interests: Monetary Policy, Finance, Macroeconomics

 

SOP:

 

I write to express my interest in pursuing an Economics Ph.D. at X. This is a necessary step to accomplish my long-term objective of producing first-rate economic research. I am particularly interested in the intersection of the fields of finance and monetary policy.

 

My drive to start studying economics came from two sources. The first was curiosity since my family was deeply affected by a financial crisis. This sparked a desire to understand economic forces, their social implications, and how to alleviate their woes. The second relates to my interest in learning mathematics. I attended X, an experimental school for high IQ students. Unfortunately, the coursework had little emphasis on formal math, which I wanted to explore further due to my affinity for quantitative analysis. Thus, undergraduate studies in economics were the perfect opportunity to explore these topics.

 

I enrolled at the Pontificia Universidad Javeriana (recently ranked 1st in Colombia) to obtain a B.A in Economics. After initially struggling, I was able to adjust and later excel. This can be noticed in the trend of my GPA which jumped from the equivalent of an American 3.46 as an undergraduate to a 3.91 during my master’s. I was given high honors on the graduation ceremony, obtaining a medal for occupying the first place in my batch.

 

These efforts paid back when I gained a highly competitive internship, and a subsequent full-time job, at the Central Bank of Colombia. This gave me the opportunity to get involved in rigorous research. I stepped up quickly from research assistant to being a coauthor in various research projects. I have also engaged in independent research that has been published in Economic Systems, a JCR journal with a 1.2 impact factor.

 

However, in order to continue advancing my career, I must further improve my knowledge, aiming to dedicate fully to economic inquiry. Given the rigor and excellence that X commands over the field, it would be the ideal place to enable me to follow this path.

 

I am confident I can succeed at this program. I have worked intensely to prepare myself for the burdens that doctoral studies require, especially regarding mathematical coursework. I earned a score equivalent to an American A grade in a real analysis course, which followed Rudin (1953) and Bartle and Sherbert (1982).

 

As I mentioned above, my interests lie in the fields of finance and monetary policy. During my time at the Central Bank, I was involved in advising the Board of Governors on several key policy issues, which often required serious research. Being immersed in the policy process represented an important advantage, as it was the opportunity to get to know where the academic literature fails to answer policy-makers’ questions.

 

My work can be summarized as an analysis of the dynamic interaction between financial and macroeconomic variables. As you can see from my attached CV, I have worked in understanding how credit behavior can signal the buildup of imbalances that can result in costly financial crises. In particular, I investigated the relationship between loan growth and banks’ risky behavior. This led to an analysis of the interdependence of credit and business cycles. One strand of my work focused on the implications of failing to account for the financial cycle in potential output estimates. This failure can result in prolonged monetary policy easing periods, which down the line can explain housing bubble durations.

 

I believe my research would benefit immensely from X's faculty knowledge and experience. For instance….

 

Recently I have been working on studying the effects of excessively loose monetary policy on bubble duration, in a paper which was granted a revise and resubmit status by International Finance.

 

I am excited about the possibility of further advancing these ideas academically, hopefully with support and guidance from these distinguished professors.

 

Finally, I want to highlight that I am confident of my adequacy for this program and that my commitment to academic research will provide me the necessary drive to succeed. Thank you for reviewing my application. I look forward to hearing from you.

Concerns:Low grades in math as an undergrad

Other: Experience at a Central Bank, Matlab, R, Stata, Latex

 

Applying to:

 

[TABLE=width: 131]

[TR]

[TD]UC Davis[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]UC Irvine[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Northwestern[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Pennsylvania[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Wisconsin-Madison[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Michigan-Ann Arbor[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Princeton[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Cornell[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]MIT[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Boston College[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]LSE[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Carlos III[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Barcelona UPF[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]CEMFI[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]University of Zurich[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

[brobroski]

This looks real excellent. I'm betting you'll get into 80% of the schools you applied. Based on your research interest and one of your profs being from NYU, why didn't you apply to NYU?

[SebastianECON]

Thanks! Let's hope so!

 

I plan to move with my girlfriend to wherever I am going. In New York, she would have fewer opportunities.

[econphd1992]

I don't understand why you posted your SOP. No one does that here, one main reason being SOP does not really matter for admissions.

 

I'm a first year at a T30 (from Asia). Have an MA in econ from T50 US school, with 2 years research exp from the IMF, with one co-authored paper. (GRE Q 169)

 

My impression is that research experience will help only in the margin, it will not substitute your 4 C's in math classes which is likely to diminish your chances. Econ courses in undergrad are not given that much weight because they generally lack the math that we have to work through in PhD. Linear Algebra, Math-stat, ODE are very important, particularly for first year macro and metrics. Your A in RA will help.

 

My overall impression is you are overshooting. I can't comment on the european schools. But unless your letter writers push hard for you and probably get in touch with adcoms directly (or are already well acquainted with current adcoms in the schools you applied), your chances in any of the T20s you listed are low. You might get into BC or UC Davis.

 

 

 

Thanks! Let's hope so!

 

I plan to move with my girlfriend to wherever I am going. In New York, she would have fewer opportunities.

[SebastianECON]

I don't understand why you posted your SOP. No one does that here, one main reason being SOP does not really matter for admissions.

 

I'm a first year at a T30 (from Asia). Have an MA in econ from T50 US school, with 2 years research exp from the IMF, with one co-authored paper. (GRE Q 169)

 

My impression is that research experience will help only in the margin, it will not substitute your 4 C's in math classes which is likely to diminish your chances. Econ courses in undergrad are not given that much weight because they generally lack the math that we have to work through in PhD. Linear Algebra, Math-stat, ODE are very important, particularly for first year macro and metrics. Your A in RA will help.

 

My overall impression is you are overshooting. I can't comment on the european schools. But unless your letter writers push hard for you and probably get in touch with adcoms directly (or are already well acquainted with current adcoms in the schools you applied), your chances in any of the T20s you listed are low. You might get into BC or UC Davis.

 

 

I know people don't usually post SOPs here, but that's not a valid reason for not posting one.

 

As I understand it, a good SOP doesn't help and a bad one can hurt. Thus, people still have to work on their SOPs. I posted mine because it could help someone to have an example. I don't know whether mine is good or not. At the very least it can be an example of how NOT to write it.

 

I agree with you on my grades. I posted my low math grades as an undergrad as my main concern. Look, I tried to compensate for that working on my research and taking RA. Maybe it wasn't enough, I don't know.

 

On the other hand, maybe adcoms won't understand my foreign grades and will have to check out the rest of my application (which I believe is much better).

 

I took a shot, or more precisely, some shots on T20s. Maybe I wasted several hundred dollars. I just wanted to try.

 

One of my recommenders encouraged me to apply to T20s and T10s. Some of my co-workers with similar profiles got into T10s and T20s.

 

All I'm saying is that I'm aware of my weaknesses. I don't know whether I can get into a T20 or not. Thats why I applied all over from T10s to T100s, to let adcoms place me. That strategy minimizes regret, as getting a rejection is better than not trying at all.

 

I'll let you know if I get into Davis or BC. :encouragement: