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Re: Profile Evaluation (2020 cycle)
I can maybe speak briefly to 4, since I went through this process from an unranked school (LAC, not state). You can't change where you went to school at this point, and you can't stress about that too much, but it seems like you've really made the best of it (getting close with some professors, getting research experience). Your profile is pretty impressive in a lot of aspects and I really wouldn't worry about it.
Take this with a *heavy* grain of salt and wait for others to chime in, but to me it seems like reach schools in the teens/low 20s would be appropriate, and you should surely get some good well funded offers in the thirties (still apply to some safeties, of course, figure out schools you'd be happy with in a wide range). If you decided to do an RAship at the Fed or at a top school for 2 years before entering a program that might boost you up a little further still.