Two important remaining unknowns are (1) the strength of undergrad reputation at your school, as this varies a bit around the econ top 30 range, and of course (2) the strength of your LORs. On average, your profile probably gets into a 10-15 or 15-20 program. Fed is pretty consistent placing in this range. Adjust this slightly up or down if your UG institution and/or letters are above/below average. I doubt your real analysis grade will have much impact, given the rest of your grades.
Top 10 is certainly possible, again I'd probably say that having above average (1) and (2) will really help here.
I would roughly recommend applying a lot in the 10-20 range, a couple/few in the 20-30 range that match your research interests mostly as safeties, and a couple/few in the top 10 also prioritizing match quality. I would apply to lots of top 10 (along with the same 10-20 and 20-30 apps) if your inside info about (1) and (2) is strong, or even if it's roughly average but you're somewhat risk seeking and willing to take the financial gamble.