Profile Evaluation [2019-20 Cycle]

[slimchance]

Type of Undergrad: BA in Economics in a top Europe university (it consistently places both its undergraduate and graduate students into top20)
Undergrad GPA: 3.75 (summa cum laude)
Type of Grad : One of the top Euro master`s program that teaches the first year PhD courses (not LSE or Oxbridge but like Bocconi, UPF, TSE, Bonn etc). It is ranked around top25-30 worldwide according to Tilburg and Repec rankings.
Grad GPA: 7.5/10 (it seems low but this program is like LSE EME, so I have distinction in the program)
GRE: 155V/169Q/ AWA 5

Math Courses:
Undergrad: Calc 1/2/3 (all A), Probability and Statistics I-II (A), Linear Algebra (A) , Differential Eq. (A), Stochastic Processes (A-), Real Analysis I (A-), Real Analysis II (C+), Linear and Integer Optimization (A), Discrete Math (A)

Econ Courses:
Undergrad: Usual two semesters Micro-Macro-Metrics sequence (all A, some A+). Growth Theory (A), Econ of Information (A), Institutional Economics (A)
Graduate: All the first year PhD courses at the graduate institution that I mentioned above.

Research Experience: No RA experience, but I was a summer research intern at a top Think-Tank in my country. I also wrote a honors thesis in undergraduate, and currently I`m in the process of writing a master`s thesis. I´m also a teaching assistant at my current graduate school if it counts.

LORs : I haven´t decided on this yet. My undergraduate professors would write me a better letter since I have a closer relationship with them. Graduate professors can´t write anything beyond `this guy got a good grade in one of my hardest courses´, but not including a letter from my graduate profs may also signal erroneously that I did bad in master`s. So probably I will include 2 letters from my undergraduate institution ( both of them publish in top journals, and would write a stellar letter for me), and one mediocre letter from a graduate prof.

I can stay at my current graduate institution for my PhD (I am already qualified to proceed to PhD here as a result of my master`s gpa), and its PhD placements are nice especially within Europe. So I don´t want to go to a mediocre US school just because it is in the US. JHU or Carniege Mellon would be the bottom line in my application list. Do you think I have high enough chances for top15 places like Brown, Cornell, UMich or UCLA?

[richardsorge]

I'm assuming that your graduate school is on par with (or one of) Bonn, UPF, PSE, Tilburg and so on. The fact that you already got in a good European school will reduce your stress during the application season. In the worst case scenario, you can continue with your current program.

You have a bad grade in real analysis ii though a bad grade in a single course shouldn't harm your application much. Your crucial weakness is, in my opinion, the lack of credible research experience. If you could have done some kind of research assistantship during your undergraduate or graduate studies, at least a couple of US top20 places would be guaranteed for you. This doesn't mean of course that with these specifications you have no chances. Admission to top20 is remarkably random.