Probably get in somewhere near the 50-60 rank.
Type of Undergrad: Large public national university, with low ranked PhD program
Undergrad GPA: 3.65
Type of Grad: 2 post-bacc graduate econ courses (one A-, one B+)
GRE: 166q, 166v, 5w
Math Courses: calculus 1-3 (A,A,B+), linear algebra (A), real analysis (B), probability theory (B+), differential equations (B+), intro to proofs (A-),
Econ Courses: intermediate micro/macro (A-, A), econometrics (A), math econ (A-), like 4 other economics electives (all As)
Other Courses: business statistics (C+), business calc (A)
Letters of Recommendation: one from a professor who I took two classes with and excelled in, two from FRB where I have been an RA for 1.5 years. I think they will be overall pretty positive but nothing like "this is the next friedman"
Research Experience: senior thesis (presented at undergrad research conference), 1.5 years of RA at FRB, two summer undergrad RA positions in non-econ social sciences
Teaching Experience: n/a
SOP: just talked about my experience and interests and goals. very generic but clear.
I'm starting to have those post-application doubts. Where do you think I'm competitive? I applied to 14 schools mostly in the 30-60 range. Am I too confident? Should I apply at more safe bets?
The only way I see you striking out is if you are a bad match with everywhere you applied. I had a friend who had a profile like yours, slightly worse, that basically got rejected from everywhere because he said he wanted to do behavioral and applied to schools that did not have anyone doing behavioral. You seem very competitive for places ranked between 40 and 60. The Fed R.A. might push you into the top 30 range.
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