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Re: PhD in Economics Advice for Research Heavy Undergrad
Not sure what your priorities are but your profile seems primed for a full-time research position (provided that your "historical economics" paper was an empirical paper that used historical data a la cliometrics rather than a history of thought type paper) at a top 10 predoc (I am at one with a similar profile to yours). This would open the door to top 20, and even top 10 PhD programs, provided you do well and get superb letters. Of course, you may not want to spend one or two years as an RA and may want to start a PhD right away, in which case you should apply widely. You should sprinkle some top 20 schools (and maybe a few top 10s) because the expected marginal benefit far exceeds the marginal cost, even with the low probabilities of getting in.