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Re: Quick profile check
There's so much randomness in admissions that you probably shouldn't be thinking about your competitiveness for any one school; someone could easily get rejected from UC Irvine but get into a "better" school. I think the question you want to ask is, "how competitive is my profile for PhD programs in X range" (40-60 on US news for example).
Fwiw I received a waitlist from Irvine this year with a 169 Q GRE, 3.9+ GPA, strong letters and research experience (no grad school). Best advice is to apply widely and ask professors at your current institution where they think you should target.