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Ok guys, I was in your position 7 years ago. This year one of my students is applying to PhD programs and I am super excited for him, so I am visiting this forum again to see how the market is moving and to offer you my two cents. I applied in a complicated period (2007-2009 crisis) and I was rejected by every top 20 that I applied to. I had a couple of top 30s and accepted the one with funding. If I were in that situation today, I would think it twice. Let me tell you that the job market is becoming more brutal every year, and if you are in a top 30 and you are not a star, you will struggle a lot. For instance, this year there is a top university with almost 40 job market candidates. At the end, pedigree matters a lot. I had a really innovative job market paper, but I was not the star in my cohort. The number of interviews and flyouts I had was just a third of any below average candidate in a top 15. I got a job in a top 50 program, but I was very very lucky (it involves many people rejecting that offer, I was like their fifth alternative). And this is, because my program is focused on the median placement; it pushes almost everyone at the same rate on the market, perhaps the star a little bit more. We don't have a wonderful placement but we are all at least placed. Most of the programs at top 30s are more concerned about the top placement and you will see many candidates struggling a lot to find a job. You will see this strategic behavior also in a couple of top 20s. As basic as it sounds and as alarmist as it can be, if you are thinking about which program to choose, choose the one that is ranked the highest. Then you will maximize the chance of getting the job you want. I don't want to discourage any of you, at the end I have a pretty decent job, but this is how the job market process is going to be. I will probably check this forum a couple of times more, so if you have any question for me, feel free. No PM, let's try to make public all the info.