kartelite: You were the one most perfectly predicting my chances, although I didn't believe it at all at the time... thanks! You said I'd be admitted to one or two top fives, which is what has happened.
One of my recommenders, however, said that there was a great risk that I wouldn't be admitted to any of the 20 schools I applied to.
It turns out I should have believed in kartelite and not my letter writer :D