mysorelboots

I've been out of maths for a while myself... and I recently picked up Chiang's Fundamental Methods of Mathematical Economics. It is at just the right level for pre-pre-PhD preparation Best of luck. :tup:;)[clap]

Thanks TBZ, great info... appreciate the thoughts. Look forward to meeting you.

TBZ, compared to your incoming class.... what pros/cons do you see with this size of class? PS - And I sure hope this list doesn't include that dude who is using the UCSC PhD program to get into ANOTHER PhD program...

The only models with some success in predicting future exchange rates are those built using high-frequency data. And well the tenor of such forecasts is minutes and hours, not a summer, school year or even the length of a PhD program. Trying to time any market is a fools game. One can make an educated assessment which takes into account fundamentals, economics, regulatory environments, capital flows, etc. etc. etc... sometimes you will be right... and sometimes you will be wrong. So you can either be risk averse and convert all your money NOW at current exchange rates or buy some sort of option protection.... or you can take on some risk and position yourself according to whichever forecast you believe. The reason the USD has been strong since last summer has nothing to do with fundamentals, economics or whatever... but rather the mighty USD has once again become the ultimate safe haven in a crisis situation. And well for that matter US treasury paper. The 2-year US bond is still yielding less that 1.00%...3-month t-bills close to zero. Are treasuries the next bubble? Perhaps. I see risk appetite slowly returning to the market (evidence: CDS spreads have tightened, S&P close to flat for the year... MSCI Emerging market index up 12% YTD) and there will undoubtedly be an exodus out of US treasuries once fear fades and investors put all this money to work, and so the USD should sell off over the medium term. While the magnitude or time horizon is anyone's guess, if I was positioning my portfolio and I was a risk taker, I would be bearish the USD over the next 6 to 12 months, but bullish in 2010. I do not buy the "printing paper leads to rampant inflation which should lead to a much weaker USD" argument. There is no inflation. TARPs and bailouts are not increasing money supply but rather they are being used to cover losses and holes in balance sheets. My argument for a strong USD over the long term centers around a tax bill currently in Congress which aims at eliminating the tax advantage US multinational companies get for re-investing overseas earnings abroad. Nobama needs to increase tax revenue, so he figures why not tax ALL overseas earnings, regardless of whether you bring them home or not? This seeminly subtle change to policy will have huge implications on the capital structure of companies, functional currency designation of subsidiary's, accounting presentation, and trade flows (i.e. USDs will be bought on an ongoing basis, consistent with taxation practices). Ok I will end there. If you want to eliminate uncertainty, buy or sell currency as you need it.. and you will sleep well at night.

The cost of hedging via options is very high in the current high volatility environment. Just to give you an idea: The cost of a 1-year option to buy or sell EUR at today's forward rate (i.e. 50-delta option) costs about 0.10 on the current exchange rate 1.3100. So in other words, if you wanted to protect yourself from USD depreciation (i.e. and the EUR appreciation), you would buy yourself a 1-year EUR call/USD put struck at 1.3100 and the breakeven on this option would be 1.4100. This means the EUR would have to end higher than 1.4100 in order for you to have realized at least as much benefit from the option as you paid for it. Conversely, if the USD appreciated, the EURUSD exchange rate would need to fall below 1.2100 for you to "break even". And these my young friends are institutional prices (ie. good on 10 million and above). If you are hedging 20k or so, they would be much worse. CONCLUSION: Call your local financial adviser and ask about "Dual-Currency Deposits". Or you can google this word and there are a few online providers that would offer this product. With this product, you become a writer of options instead of a buyer, and you can enjoy an enhanced yield whilst you make your decision between continents. Best of luck with it..

Dude I say this with a great deal of respect... GO SOMEWHERE ELSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! [clap] If you feel UCSC is "inferior" to you given your profile then your heart won't be in it. The rest of us mortals will distract you, our humor will annoy you... how could you even share a classroom, an office with us... or even roam the same halls. While the rest of us are out on Thursday nights capping a tough week with a couple brews, you'll be trying for that 800 Verbal GRE score and 6.0 essay to go along with your 4.0 and your 800 Quant. You'll be doing this application process all over again, logging onto TM from your iPhone... you'll be mess and I am hereby helping you avoid a disaster. So to recap, on behalf of the 19-strong UCSC incoming class of 2009... please go somewhere, be well... and may you be graced by the presence of others of a different caliber. :grad:

I urge you do embrace the opportunity to own a gun... it's really liberating... [clap][clap]:tup::tup:

all of you assume that there is indeed an impermeable link between teaching and publishing... and this is never really the case. would any of you care to comment?

GET MONEY GET PAID :tup::tup::tup::tup::tup::tup:

Which lot is closest to the Econ department? Do we even have a choice? What about office space? Is it 2-3 per office? Any windows in those offices?

Island hiking? Awesome... How tough are the quals?

Dude... this is like saying the only way to ever chat up a hot bird is to go to a strip club. UCLA is a great place no doubt, but let's give credit to top 30, 50 finance programs everyone huh?

Yes dude for sure... The further north (i.e. up the coast) and northeast (into the mountains), the cheaper rents get... Craigslist is by far the best source. Some cool places outside Santa Cruz are Boonie Doon, Boulder Creek, Scotts Valley, Felton... if you are adventurous you can go venture out to Pescadero or Half Moon Bay, a little far... but the waters are beautiful Hey I'll be visiting campus April 16-20 so if anyone is around... we should get a beer and fish taco.

Your dog is very cute I have a 17 lb mini golden doodle myself... :tup:

Great thanks for the info. I will probably live off-campus a bit further off up the coast. 1) Is there a lot of traffic between Santa Cruz and say... Half Moon Bay? Is it an easy drive? 2) Weather? Between 50-60 most of the time? Does the sun shine? And what about rain? 3) What kind of macs does the department make available? I-macs? 4) Would it be possible to install the software offered by the department on a personal mac laptop? 5) What about vampires?