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Yes, they can definitely be wrong. The number of applicants is increasing every year and the number of spots in the top programs is not, so admissions are becoming more competitive every year. Many professors are benchmarking their predictions against an outdated baseline. A lot of "top 5" people are ending up in 5-20 programs and some "top 10" people are getting shut out completely. OutofGame applied a couple years ago and didn't get in and is now the shining star of the forum this year, so it is too random to predict with any degree of accuracy.
Attending: Harris School of Public Policy