startz

Of course top-10 schools have better academic placements, and this is especially true of MIT and Harvard. But many schools outside the top-10 also have quite good placements! Pretty much every school posts placements. Take a look at those you find relevant rather than speculatiing.

Traditionally (for American graduate schools), one had to ask for a release from the first school...which as a practical matter was always granted. That is no longer true. The details are at https://cgsnet.org/resources/for-current-prospective-graduate-students/april-15-resolution. Note that while changing your mind before April 15th is completely okay, in some circumstances the losing school may be annoyed after April 15th. At the very least, it shouldn't be done lightly.

Worse than that. There's often a small amount of action after the 15th!

That's right, I think.

MIT's web page says

Let me just add something from the other side: Econ departments aren't going to be offended if you decline. In fact, they will appreciate hearing from you as early as possible.

Are you suggesting that people shouldn't bother to go to visit days?

No, just whatever one learned that might be helpful to people in thinking about that department, or how it might compare with a place they visited.

Go back and talk to your letter writers. They know you better than anyone here.

I wonder if people might share here what they learned at visit days at various departments, naming the departments while remaining anonymous.

It depends on what they are actually going to have you do. Are you just grading papers? Holding office hours? Then not so tough. Do you have to prepare material to present at recitation sections? That could be a lot more demanding.

Actually, John's PhD is University of Wyoming.

This is exactly right. It really helps departments, as well as everyone here, when candidates decline early.

While international applicants typically do have a master's, American applicants typically do not.

http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2018/Volume38/EB-18-V38-I4-P173.pdf

I don't know that it will make you feel any better, but the admission process is incredibly random. Admission committees are looking at 300~800 applications, almost all of which meet basic qualifications. No one on these committees believes they get it exactly right. One shouldn't take the results personally--although of course we all do.

Economics generally does not require an interview, although there are a small number of programs that do.

Things have indeed been quiet here, which is a real loss for applicants. But let me mention that if you compare to the economics section of theGradCafe, it's still vastly busier here.

American econ PhD programs don't much care what area your undergraduate degree was in.

You should talk to the faculty at McGill who you are going to ask for letters of recommendation. Your graduate grades are superb, but your UW grades aren’t. So the McGill letters will be especially important.

travels is wrong.

In general, intermediate is important. I expect your solid experience in econometrics will overcome that.

On the surface you seem to have an excellent shot at a T20. Deeper down you probably also have an excellent shot...but talk to the people writing your letters. In particular, talk to the faculty who have previously sent students on to the PhD.

Excellent record. You should be proud of your accomplishments. On the surface, you are an excellent candidate for those schools. But letters of recommendation matter a lot. So chat with the econ profs who will write you letters and see where they think you should go. Also, even though you are a very strong candidate you might want to add a couple more safety schools given the enormous amount of randomness in admissions.

People do sometimes transfer. But you should realize that you would likely have to pretty much start over, adding two years to the time to get a PhD.