Chicago Booth V Michigan

[Palikari]

Ah OK, makes sense I was assuming that there were only 2 tries. That seems much better.

[dreck]

First of all, Michigan has some of the lowest attrition rates of any top 15 dept. Secondly, if the OP didn't have a serious interest in PF, then the choice probably wouldn't be up for question. We should probably address the question on its own merits (i.e. taking into account what the OP says he/she's interested in) rather than just assuming she'll change her mind and should just go to the place with the best brand name placements.

 

Not according to the DGS, who told me it attrition at Michigan is about 50%. Only 10% of that is due to failing exams, however, and about 15% total for academic reasons.

 

I think the OP should decide whether he wants to end up in business or a business school--in which case Booth strictly dominates--or government/economic departments--in which case Michigan dominates. The former make more money, the latter is more fun IMO. Your interests are probably less stable than the job you eventually want to have, so there you go.

 

Edit: PS can someone pm me to explain where the two gold fish under my name came from? Thanks :D

[anonymous123]

asquare: Can you verify Dreck's numbers? I assume that you mean 50% over all years (5) for the particular cohort. Still, that sounds incredibly high to me.

[asquare]

asquare: Can you verify Dreck's numbers? I assume that you mean 50% over all years (5) for the particular cohort. Still, that sounds incredibly high to me.

If the number came from David Lam, it's credible. It sounds very high to me, too, relative to what I've observed here. I don't know what time period that figure covers. My entering class of 24 has lost 5 students, I believe. Only one left after failing the final attempt at the prelims. The cohort behind me has lost only 1. Of course, I don't know for sure that everyone who is still here will graduate (though I think we will!), and I don't know the figures for cohorts ahead of me (because I don't know who was in their first year classes before I got here). From the Stock et al. 2006 paper on attrition, an eventual graduation rate of about 50 percent is what they expect overall. I remember being surprised by another paper that had attrition (or survival) rates by tier of school, with about 50% even in top-20 programs. I don't remember what that paper is, though.

[good_tea]

I find this quite surprising too, especially since Michigan always seems to have a fairly large number of students in the job market. I have the list of placements for the past few years and the number of placed students should more or less be a lower bound for the number of job market candidates (assuming there are not many post-doc, etc. who are job market candidates). From my counting, there were 16 people placed this last year, about 19 the year before, 29 the before that, 15 before that, 26 the year before that and 22 the year before that. That makes a total of 127 people in 6 years, which amounts to an average of about 21 people per year. Assuming that almost all of these people entered in the period 5-7 years before they were placed, the 50% figure would imply that the entering classes in Michigan ~5-12 years ago would have had to consist of about 40 students. So either ~40 students entering is true, or there are large number of people who have been graduating recently but who have been around for longer than around 7 years or the 50% figure is not correct for this time period or I am confusing myself somehow.

[dreck]

That's the nubmer David Lam gave me. He had given a presentation the previous day on attrition, so actually had quite a few statistics. The only other that I recall was that a very small number of those who leave do so because they fail the prelims.

The entering class is expected to be in the 30-35 range; then 21 candidates per year gives 30-40% attrition...Lam did mention that the department has been moving toward a stronger push to get students out in five years, so what you observe could be the 6, 7, or 8-year students entering the job market along with the 5-years, leading to a larger number of candidates than expected. But I'm not sure how else to account for those numbers...

***Probing my memory, it's possible Lam said 40 instead of 50, and I remember 50 because I'm pessimistic :) Stupid of me not to write it down. So there, I've completely undermined my own credibility.

 

I apologize for sending the thread on a detour, but I guess it's important to have this particular fact straight. As far of the OP is concerned, I think all of us are in agreement that you are very unlikely to leave Michigan for academic reasons, so I would make your decision based on the program strengths and what kind of job you want.

[asquare]

Thanks for the additional information. One clarification -- these 30+ person classes are relatively recent developments. My class started with 24. Also, did David break down attrition at all? I suspect it is higher for international students. That's not an excuse, just an observation.

[Ibid]

I suspect it is higher for international students. That's not an excuse, just an observation.

Damn foreigners.

[dreck]

Damn foreigners.

 

Totally...with their master's degrees and unreal mathematical reasoning skills.

 

No, I didn't get the numbers broken down by domestic/international. Why would international students be more likely to leave? Most appear more qualified going into the process...

[Ibid]

No, I didn't get the numbers broken down by domestic/international. Why would international students be more likely to leave? Most appear more qualified going into the process...

I guess we're more likely to struggle to adjust/miss home, etc.

[tm_member]

I guess we're more likely to struggle to adjust/miss home, etc.

 

Ibid, good to have you back, congrats on the admits and the decision! :-) I think I should start a facebook group for Irish PhD candidates, there's a guy at Duke, and a girl at UCSB that I have been in touch with too...

[asquare]

Totally...with their master's degrees and unreal mathematical reasoning skills.

 

No, I didn't get the numbers broken down by domestic/international. Why would international students be more likely to leave? Most appear more qualified going into the process...

Well, the reason I asked was because I suspect that international students are at an advantage for the first year (because they disproportionately hold master's degrees) but at a disadvantage during the research stage (because they are less comfortable writing and presenting in English, and may have a harder time finding faculty mentors if they are not comfortable with the American university culture). Since by David's figures, the attrition at U-Mich seems to come after prelims, I wondered if that was a factor.

[Ibid]

Ibid, good to have you back, congrats on the admits and the decision! :-) I think I should start a facebook group for Irish PhD candidates, there's a guy at Duke, and a girl at UCSB that I have been in touch with too...

And congratulations to you, too! I'm the third from my graduating class to cross the pond, one is second year Harvard and the other just accepted Northwestern, so a Facebook group mightn't be a bad idea!

 

PS I know both Barry and Judy :)

[tm_member]

And congratulations to you, too! I'm the third from my graduating class to cross the pond, one is second year Harvard and the other just accepted Northwestern, so a Facebook group mightn't be a bad idea!

 

PS I know both Barry and Judy :)

 

I wish I had the sense you guys all seem to have had... I really had no intention of doing this when I was finishing my undergrad 7 years ago... A few bad grades can make all the difference between ending up at Harvard, NWU, Michigan and the places I got in... I'm experiencing some regret at not doing better all those years ago...