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Is my range of schools safe?


Wahasky

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I posted this a few months ago, but I’ve finished applications and I wanted to post and see if anyone else could give me insight as to whether I applied to the correct range of schools.

 

Type of Undergrad: BA in Math and Economics from small LA school

Undergrad GPA: 3.95 overall, 4 in economics, 3.85 in math

GRE: 169 Q, 167 V, 5.5 W

Math Courses: calculus 1-3 (A, A-, A), linear algebra (A), Intro to Proofs (B+), Diff Eq (A), Abstract Algebra (A), Topology (A), Prob and Stat I and II (A and A), Mathematical Modeling (A)

Econ Courses: intermediate micro/macro (A), political economy of Africa (A), Environmental Econ (A), Game Theory (A), History of Thought (A), Senior Seminar (research thesis, A), independent research course (A), Econometrics (A)

Letters of Recommendation: Three very strong letters from economics faculty at my undergrad. I know at least one professor will place me in top few students he has taught over decades of working at this university; the others should be similarly strong.

Teaching: I worked for a year as a GRE and SAT teacher/tutor, not expecting this to matter much.

Research: RA throughout undergrad for my professor’s consulting practice, and then two large undergrad research projects (senior thesis and an independent research course).

Work: Since graduating I have been working as an economic researcher in state government dealing with unemployment and labor markets. I do data analysis, economic modeling, and time series forecasting. I have been very involved in the state’s economic response to COVID-19.

Research Interests: Labor and macroeconomics. I spend a fair amount of space in my SOP linking my research in labor markets in my current job to my research interests.

 

I applied to programs two years ago and got several offers in the 30s and 40s with two waitlists in the low 20s. Although I was happy with my results my partner got into an amazing MA program, and so I decided to work in research for two years and then enter grad school (I explain this in my SOP).

 

I applied to one reach school, 2 schools in the 20s, 7 schools across the 30s, 40s, and 50s, and then two schools ranked in the 60s or 70s (I’m basing this all on US News, but I understand relative competitiveness holds fairly well across other lists/metrics).

 

I know COVID-19 is going to make admissions this year tough and more competitive. Have I applied to a reasonably safe list of schools so that I should end up with a funded offer from somewhere?

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This seems to be a strong applications, I'm confused on why you didn't get placed into a t-20 your first time around

 

I applied to several T20 and was not surprised to get rejected. I have several weaknesses: I went to a small and not highly ranked liberal arts school, which counts against me on its own, but also means that my letter writers are not particularly active or well-known researchers, and that although I was an RA for a professor's consulting practice I did not have any academic RA opportunities available. I also have no publications, and couldn't take any grad level courses.

 

I also have a gap in my education -- went to school for 1 year after high school, didn't do great, broke my back working for 2 years, went back to school buckled down and got the grades/degrees you see above. I don't think this counts against me much, especially not at this point, but it's in there.

 

I think my strong recommendations, good grades, and good GRE (plus a good SOP and now some unique work experience) balance out my weaknesses, but it doesn't make me a T20 candidate. I am 100% fine with this, but I really really want to do my PhD in economics so I want to get in with funding *somewhere*.

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I'm really surprised your first round of placements were so poor; I personally don't think it's worth it go to schools outside the top 30 or so as the opportunity cost can be particularly high (especially for an American).

 

What is the rank range of your small LAC?

 

Not very highly ranked, and not very well known. I know a lot of people share your opinion about going to schools outside top X schools, but I've weighed and thought about this for a long time and I am confident in my choice. I just want to know if my range of schools is wide/conservative enough, given my profile and results last time.

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I'm really surprised your first round of placements were so poor; I personally don't think it's worth it go to schools outside the top 30 or so as the opportunity cost can be particularly high (especially for an American).

 

People outside of T30 also get excellent placement in both TT and private sector. Your generalization of utility measurement is weird here. Many people derive utility from being able to do research and pursue interesting questions. Intellectual fulfillment, the need for PhD to get to a certain position in the private sector or becoming a TT Prof anywhere are all plausible options in one’s opp cost. You should refrain from making generalizations based on your silly criteria.

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If you feel nagging doubts, why not assuage them by applying to more schools in this range? I think your application is strong. Not sure if you can derive much signal from what happened last time - in expectation, you could be a top 10-20 candidate if you apply to all 10 schools in this range!

 

Not going to lie, your outcome last time fills me with dread about this cycle because my profile is broadly similar and I have an expectation of being admitted to at least one top 20 program, which now seems absurd to me.

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If you feel nagging doubts, why not assuage them by applying to more schools in this range? I think your application is strong. Not sure if you can derive much signal from what happened last time - in expectation, you could be a top 10-20 candidate if you apply to all 10 schools in this range!

 

Not going to lie, your outcome last time fills me with dread about this cycle because my profile is broadly similar and I have an expectation of being admitted to at least one top 20 program, which now seems absurd to me.

 

I don't think anyone knows what is going to happen in this cycle so apply as broadly as possible.

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If you feel nagging doubts, why not assuage them by applying to more schools in this range? I think your application is strong. Not sure if you can derive much signal from what happened last time - in expectation, you could be a top 10-20 candidate if you apply to all 10 schools in this range!

 

Not going to lie, your outcome last time fills me with dread about this cycle because my profile is broadly similar and I have an expectation of being admitted to at least one top 20 program, which now seems absurd to me.

 

Thank you for the advice. I wouldn't generalize too much from my experience -- I have a kind of weird profile, and applications in general involve so much noise it's hard to make direct comparisons. That side, I would agree with ahududu's advice that especially this year applying as broadly as possible is the best way to go.

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People outside of T30 also get excellent placement in both TT and private sector. Your generalization of utility measurement is weird here. Many people derive utility from being able to do research and pursue interesting questions. Intellectual fulfillment, the need for PhD to get to a certain position in the private sector or becoming a TT Prof anywhere are all plausible options in one’s opp cost. You should refrain from making generalizations based on your silly criteria.

 

Thank you Bayes, this is exactly how I feel.

 

Anyone else have any input on whether the range of schools I have applied to seems relatively safe?

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