axias

I think econhappy’s ranking is quite good and what zshfryoh1 said makes sense too. I personally would put UCLA and UCSD in the same tier, and I would like to add that UCSB’s placements are quite good as well (they even placed one to UC Davis in 16–17). Plus from my limited experience interacting with UCSB’s faculties, I feel like they do care a lot about their PhD students and their faculties are cool and nice, at least that is my (probably biased) estimation. As a former UCSD undergraduate student, I felt very safe and comfortable in La Jolla, though it is an expensive place to live. I heard and believe that Santa Barbara is like a paradise (meaning quite likely even better than La Jolla). Don’t know too much about politics aspects though since I personally am not too interested in it. Other than UCLA and UCSD, I would lean towards UCSB, but obviously it highly depends on your interests and other preferences.

First of all, are you applying for fall 2020 or later? I think it might be quite late if you are applying for fall 2020. If you are applying for 2021, I'd like to say you are aiming too low cause I think your GPA and math background are solid. How high you could reach largely depends on your LORs; probably how prestigious your Master/Undergraduate program is also contributes. But even if your LORs are not stellar (while they should still be good since you already have something that might be published soon), your target programs are still too low IMO. There are too many safety options. I would not apply to that many prorgrams below ASU, UA level. Instead, I would add more programs around BC (20-40 ranking programs, with 1-3 top 20, depending on how many applications you would like to submit). You should also ask your advisors/recommenders, I'd be surprised if they do not say you are aiming too low. BTW, you'd better get a higher GRE quant.